ERV Boxscore for April 30, 2005

A couple of new features added to the boxscores:

1. The Number in Parentheses in the Final Score. These are the "inflation-adjusted" runs, which are explained below when I talk about the new Win Value column.

2. ERVPA -- ERV Plate Appearances. This new column for batters totals the team Expected Run Value for all of that player's plate appearances. For example, when a batter leads off an inning, the ERV is 0.53, so that PA is worth 0.53. This number tells you the number of runs the team was expected to score in the rest of the inning as the batter came to the plate. The higher the number, the more important the PAs were for that batter, i.e. what the stakes were. A batter who comes up everytime with Bases Loaded should have a very high ERVPA. This can be used to measure the batter's efficiency -- for example, for all of Vinny Castilla's plate appearances, the Nats were expected to score 1.43 runs. Vinny, though, generated 1.47 runs with his bat, which is better than 100 %, which is highly efficient. For comparison purposes, on the season, Vinny's efficiency (which is the best on the club) is about 15%.

3. ERVF -- ERV Faced. This is the pitchers version of ERVPA, it totals the ERV for all of the batters the pitcher faced. Essentially, it is the opposing team's total expected runs while it faced that pitcher. It can be used to measure the pitcher's efficiency, like a batter, but the number itself is meaningful -- the higher it is, the more real chances the pitcher gave the opponents to score. As you can see below, Ohka actually gave the Mets for chance to score than Zambrano -- but the Nats were much more efficient with their bats than the Mets.

4. Win Value -- This column takes the RVs (all of them, Batting, Fielding, Running, Pitching, etc.) and adjusts them for the score and inning of the game, in an effort to reflect how important the run was to the winning/losing of the game. I can't go into detail right now how it is done, but here are the basics: if the game is tied (in any inning) then the WV = the full value of the RV. Likewise where an event ties a game up or takes the lead. In essence, if the state of the game can change, the full RV is awarded. For all other times, the WV equals RV multiplied by a discount factor, which is based on the score differential and the inning. So, if a game is 10-0 in the 8th, the WV will almost always be very close to 0, because those runs (both to increase a lead or decrease it) are essentially meaningless from a win/loss standpoint.

Think of it this way -- runs are the currency with which teams buy wins. Like currency, runs have different values at different times. A solo home run in the first in a 1-0 final is worth a lot more than an grand slam in the ninth of a 10-0 game. WV seeks to adjust the runs' value for inflation, based on how much it will cost to win the game.

So, the numbers in parentheses in the final score? That's the final score adjusted to Win Value. You can use that difference, in combination with the individual player's WVs, to more accurately assess the player's responsible for the win or loss, and I plan to use that data for assigning ERV win and loss from here on out. (Thanks to Dexys for that idea).

Given the hour, I'm certain this could be more clearly stated, and some of this stuff I just thought of today, so caveat emptor for now. I will try to revise, and would gladly answer questions.


Game Number: 24 , April 30, 2005

Final Score:
New York 3 (1.13)
Washington 5 (2.91)

ERV Win: Ohka
ERV Loss: Zambrano & Reyes

New York

Batter	Pos	PA	ERVPA	Bat	Field	Run	Total RV	Total WV
ReyesJ	SS	4	2.23	(1.01)	0.00	0.00	(1.01)	(0.80)
MatsuiK	2B	4	2.27	(1.60)	0.00	0.00	(1.60)	(0.59)
BeltranC	CF	4	1.19	(0.19)	0.00	0.00	(0.19)	(0.22)
FloydC	LF	4	1.53	2.08	0.00	0.00	2.08	0.70
PiazzaM	C	4	1.67	(0.37)	0.00	0.00	(0.37)	(0.10)
MientkiewiczD	1B	3	1.30	(1.09)	0.00	0.00	(1.09)	(0.51)
WrightD	3B	3	2.14	(0.30)	0.00	0.00	(0.30)	(0.10)
DiazV	RF	3	2.38	(0.00)	0.00	0.00	(0.00)	0.01
ZambranoV	P	1	0.54	(0.21)	0.00	0.00	(0.21)	(0.13)
ValentE	PH	1	1.55	(0.76)	0.00	0.00	(0.76)	(0.44)
AndersonM	PH	1	0.28	0.26	0.00	0.00	0.26	0.04
Totals		32	17.10	(3.19)	0.00	0.00	(3.19)	(2.14)

Pitcher	BFP	ERVF	RV	WV
ZambranoV	21	9.33	(0.88)	(1.26)
AybarM	12	3.61	(0.94)	(0.24)
RingR	3	1.55	0.53	0.07
Totals	36	14.49	(1.30)	(1.43)

Washington

Batter	Pos	PA	ERVPA	Bat	Field	Run	Total RV	Total WV
WilkersonB	CF	4	2.11	(0.48)	0.00	0.00	(0.48)	(0.31)
JohnsonN	1B	4	1.63	2.09	(0.52)	0.00	1.57	0.48
VidroJ	2B	4	1.72	(1.14)	0.00	0.00	(1.14)	(0.36)
GuillenJ	RF	4	1.11	0.32	0.00	0.00	0.32	0.28
CastillaV	3B	4	1.43	1.47	0.00	0.00	1.47	1.63
ChurchR	LF	4	1.43	0.59	0.00	0.00	0.59	0.20
SchneiderB	C	4	2.08	(0.11)	0.00	0.00	(0.11)	(0.20)
GuzmanC	SS	4	1.97	(0.97)	0.00	0.00	(0.97)	(0.24)
OhkaT	P	3	0.90	(0.38)	(1.43)	0.00	(1.81)	(0.74)
MajewskiG	P	1	0.11	(0.11)	0.00	0.00	(0.11)	(0.02)
Totals		36	14.49	1.30	(1.95)	0.00	(0.66)	0.71

Pitcher	BFP	ERVF	RV	WV
OhkaT	22	12.25	4.61	2.81
MajewskiG	9	4.51	(1.76)	(0.78)
CarrascoH	1	0.33	0.33	0.11
Totals	32	17.10	3.19	2.14

ERV Boxscore April 29, 2005

Another nice, solid win for the Nats. No panic in this team, they seem to let the opponent score early to lull them into their trap. The pitching matchups are set up well for the Nats -- no Glavine or Pedro this weekend for the Mets. If Zach Day can pitch like he did Monday night versus the Phils, and Patterson continues his commanding performance, a sweep could be had.

Guzman had a share of the ERV win until his error in the ninth; Hernandez would have had the ERV win alone but for his wild pitch and bad bunt.

Game Number: 23 , April 29, 2005
Final Score:
New York 1
Washington 5

Win: Hernandez & Cordero
Loss: Seo, Diaz & Bell

New York

Batter	Pos	PA	Bat	Field	Run	Total RV
ReyesJ	SS	5	(0.65)	0.00	0.16	(0.49)
MatsuiH	2B	5	(0.02)	0.00	0.00	(0.02)
BeltranC	CF	5	(0.71)	0.00	0.00	(0.71)
PiazzaM	C	5	(0.58)	0.00	0.00	(0.58)
FloydC	LF	4	0.49	0.00	0.00	0.49
MientkiewiczD	1B	4	(0.91)	0.00	0.00	(0.91)
WrightD	3B	4	0.42	0.63	0.00	1.05
DiazV	RF	4	(1.13)	0.00	0.00	(1.13)
SeoJ	P	2	(1.07)	0.00	0.00	(1.07)
ValentE	PH	1	(0.59)	0.00	0.00	(0.59)
AndersonM	PH	1	(0.25)	0.00	0.00	(0.25)
Totals		40	(5.01)	0.63	0.16	(4.21)

Pitcher	BFP	RV
SeoJ	19	(0.99)
BellH	5	(1.06)
KooD	5	0.86
AybarM	2	0.42
KingR	1	0.11
Totals	32	(0.66)

Washington

Batter	Pos	PA	Bat	Field	Run	Total RV
WilkersonB	CF	4	(0.77)	0.00	0.00	(0.77)
JohnsonN	1B	4	(0.91)	0.00	0.00	(0.91)
VidroJ	2B	4	(0.47)	0.00	0.00	(0.47)
GuillenJ	RF	4	0.72	0.00	0.00	0.72
SledgeT	LF	4	(0.24)	0.00	0.74	0.50
CastillaV	3B	3	0.72	0.00	0.00	0.72
SchneiderB	C	3	0.56	0.00	0.00	0.56
GuzmanC	SS	3	0.85	(0.59)	0.00	0.25
HernandezL	P	3	0.20	(0.49)	0.00	(0.28)
Totals		32	0.66	(1.08)	0.74	0.32

Pitcher	BFP	RV
HernandezL	35	3.88
AyalaL	3	(0.09)
CorderoC	2	1.21
Totals	40	5.01

Friday Morning Figures

Through April 27.

Name	PA	BFP	Batting	Fielding	Running	Pitching	Total RV	Win Value
PattersonJ	8	107	(0.95)	0.00	0.00	10.33	9.38	7.66
WilkersonB	100	0	7.68	0.73	(0.96)	0.00	7.46	4.09
CorderoC	0	50	0.00	0.00	0.00	6.03	6.03	2.12
CastillaV	74	0	5.77	0.12	(0.63)	0.00	5.26	(0.43)
VidroJ	91	0	7.57	(3.00)	0.00	0.00	4.57	1.69
TuckerT	0	20	0.00	(0.26)	0.00	2.95	2.69	0.63
AyalaL	1	51	(0.17)	0.00	0.00	2.76	2.59	1.25
MajewskiG	0	26	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.30	2.30	0.55
JohnsonN	88	0	2.87	(1.03)	(0.37)	0.00	1.47	(0.36)
GuillenJ	92	0	1.29	0.60	(0.71)	0.00	1.18	(0.67)
EischenJ	1	38	0.26	0.00	0.00	0.79	1.05	0.43
CarrascoH	0	13	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.57	0.57	0.07
LoaizaE	11	140	(2.19)	(0.33)	0.00	2.62	0.10	0.11
BennettG	16	0	(0.18)	(0.00)	0.00	0.00	(0.18)	0.99
SledgeT	39	0	(0.96)	0.25	0.17	0.00	(0.54)	(2.53)
CarrollJ	19	0	(0.87)	0.00	0.00	0.00	(0.87)	(0.69)
DayZ	7	100	(1.47)	(0.23)	0.00	0.71	(0.99)	(0.09)
BlancoT	14	0	(1.00)	0.00	0.00	0.00	(1.00)	(0.75)
SchneiderB	71	0	(3.25)	1.77	0.46	0.00	(1.02)	0.75
CorderoW	4	0	(1.56)	0.00	0.00	0.00	(1.56)	(0.88)
DavisJ	26	0	(2.23)	0.00	(0.16)	0.00	(2.39)	(1.57)
HernandezL	14	139	(2.48)	(0.16)	0.00	(1.12)	(3.76)	1.06
OhkaT	7	93	(0.82)	(0.57)	0.00	(2.62)	(4.01)	(4.62)
BaergaC	15	0	(2.66)	(2.03)	0.00	0.00	(4.68)	(1.08)
ChurchR	42	0	(5.01)	0.00	0.00	0.00	(5.01)	(2.31)
HorganJ	0	44	0.00	(1.05)	0.00	(6.03)	(7.07)	(0.93)
OsunaA	0	23	0.00	0.00	0.00	(9.45)	(9.45)	(0.77)
GuzmanC	85	0	(12.55)	(4.24)	(0.41)	0.00	(17.20)	(12.66)

ERV Boxscore for Wednesday, April 27

Well, one RV stat reveals all too clearly what kind of game this was for the Nats: Cristian Guzman was the ONLY Nat with a positive batting RV, with his whopping 0.03. The silent bats spoiled a great pitching performance by Esteban Loaiza, who was by far the best Nat with his 2.92 RV, which means that without him, this game is a 6-0 blowout, at least.

The ERV Win/Loss stat seems to work very well here. Loaiza is not on the hook for the loss, rather it is shared by the quietest bats (Guillen, Castilla and Vidro -- often our big three) and Ayala, whose meltdown in the ninth sealed the deal. Myers is the clear and sole owner of the ERV win, as his 3.71 RV (which is 77 percent of the max RV a pitcher can get in a game) is the difference between victory and defeat.

Game Number: 22 , April 27, 2005
Final Score:
Philadelphia 3
Washington 0

ERV Win: Myers
ERV Loss: Guillen, Ayala, Castilla & Vidro (What is this?)

Philadelphia

Batter	Pos	PA	Bat	Field	Run	Total RV
RollinsJ	SS	4	0.52	0.00	0.00	0.52
LoftonK	CF	4	(0.29)	0.00	(0.51)	(0.80)
AbreuB	RF	4	0.47	0.00	0.00	0.47
ThomeJ	1B	4	(0.86)	0.00	0.00	(0.86)
UtleyC	2B	3	(0.68)	0.00	0.00	(0.68)
MichaelsJ	LF	4	(0.27)	0.00	0.00	(0.27)
PolancoP	3B	4	0.34	0.00	0.00	0.34
LieberthalM	C	4	(0.75)	0.00	0.00	(0.75)
MyersB	P	2	(0.35)	0.06	0.00	(0.29)
OffermanJ	PH	1	(0.46)	0.00	0.00	(0.46)
BellD	PH	1	1.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
Totals		35	(1.33)	0.06	(0.51)	(1.79)

Pitcher	BFP	RV
MyersB	27	3.71
CormierR	3	0.54
WagnerB	3	0.54
Totals	33	4.79

Washington

Batter	Pos	PA	Bat	Field	Run	Total RV
WilkersonB	1B	4	(0.28)	0.51	(0.64)	(0.41)
ChurchR	CF	4	(0.03)	0.00	0.00	(0.03)
VidroJ	2B	4	(0.82)	0.00	0.00	(0.82)
GuillenJ	RF	4	(1.05)	0.00	0.00	(1.05)
SledgeT	LF	3	(0.03)	0.00	0.00	(0.03)
CastillaV	3B	4	(0.85)	0.00	0.00	(0.85)
SchneiderB	C	3	(0.77)	0.00	0.00	(0.77)
GuzmanC	SS	3	0.03	0.00	0.00	0.03
LoaizaE	P	3	(0.80)	0.00	0.00	(0.80)
BlancoT	PH	1	(0.17)	0.00	0.00	(0.17)
Totals		33	(4.79)	0.51	(0.64)	(4.91)

Pitcher	BFP	RV
LoaizaE	29	2.92
EischenJ	2	(0.55)
AyalaL	4	(1.04)
Totals	35	1.33

Notes: Fielding credit given to Brett Myers for his pickoff of Wilkerson in the first. Note that that it was worth so much (0.64) that his subsequent error and balk (which I account for in his fielding RV) do not bring him into the negative RV for the game.

Also, Wilkerson given fielding credit for his throwing Lofton out in the ninth at third base. I judged that a typical play would have resulted in the batter being out at first and runners left on second and third (in other words, Lofton would have been held at third). It was worth 0.51 RV.

Improvements to Nats Blog and Game Notes

At DM's request, your local blogmaster has added some features to Nats Blog in an effort to serve our constituency (meaning DM, Dexy's and myself) better.

First, you will note that I have, at long last, fixed the link to the Washington Nationals "clubhouse" on ESPN.com. The prior link was a dead one to the Expos clubhouse.

Second, I have added direct links to the Nats' hitting and pitching stats on ESPN.com. This is a further effort to turn Nats Blog into a hot portal site, which we can then sell to some dumb media company for $2 billion.

Third, I have added direct links to the stats pages for each of the Nats' four full-season minor league affiliates. If you want to check out what going on down on the farm, come to Nats Blog, where we will re-direct you to Baseball America.

Fourth, I have added a little feature I call the "10 game segment." For some reason, I started dividing the season up into 10-game segments back in 2000, when I was tracking the White Sox (7-3 and 9-1 so far this year). Anyway, I have explanations as to why I like the 10-game segment as a measure of a team's relative performance here, here, and here on Black Betsy, my White Sox blog. The bottom line is that good teams have four or five 7-3 segments, one or two 8-2 and 9-1 segments, and only one or two segments of 3-7 or worse. A bunch of 6-4s get you nowhere - ask the 2004 White Sox on that one.

Game Notes

DM, Dexy's and I had our second group outing to a game last night. As with the first one, there were some great moments, including a large number of "Buck Sez" bets. Perhaps the best one was when DM bet Dexy's that the Phillies would go 3 up, 3 down in an inning. After a debate concerning whether a double play would preserve a 3 up 3 down inning (we concluded it does), a Phillie promptly hit a one-out flyball with a man on first to Brad Wilkerson in deep center. The man on first tagged up, and the play was close at second - if he would have been out, it would have been one of the better "Buck Sez" victories of recent time. Regardless, I lost another "there will be a broken bat" Buck Sez, and DM continues to give his lunch money to Dexys. DM just can't turn down a Buck Sez bet.

Very excitingly, we had not one but 2 foul balls hit to within a 3 seat radius of us. Our 4th, a friend and client, got a piece of the first one, then actually had the second one in his glove before dropping it. It was a difficult, over the shoulder catch with his back to the infield, but if you get leather on it, you gotta catch it.

Also, I tried the Aramark Cheeseburger last night. I must have been hungry, because it tasted pretty good. They need to have pickles available though - a cheeseburger needs pickles. Next game (Friday night), I'll be trying the concourse on the 300 level. They've got chorizo there, which is intriguing, as well as a number of other interesting selections. It's going to take me a while to work around the stadium.

Out-Of-Town Scoreboard Update

It's working and working pretty well, thank goodness. It even was a source of a Buck Sez victory for me, as the Orioles managed to score three runs before the 6th inning (they made it easily). Early in the game, the Yankees-Angels game was listed as

*ANA 2
NYY 3

A-ha! A break in the code of honoring the ridiculous renaming of the Angels! [My personal opinion is that I was ok with LA Angels, but LA Angels of Anaheim is just moronic.] It was fixed by the sixth inning or so - someone must have called the league office or someting - and LAA were now shown as playing the NYY.

....and getting out of the parking lot was a mess.

When Does 10 Equal 8.68?

Last night, Alex Rodriguez went 4 for 5, with 3 HRs and 10 RBI. Naturally, when I first heard this, I thought "I wonder how many RV he had?" So I did the math:

AB1......1st & 2nd, 2 outs........HR..2.75 RV
AB2 -- 1st, 2 outs....................HR..1.87 RV
AB3 -- Loaded, 2 outs............HR..3.31 RV
AB4 -- 1st & 2d, 1 outs...........1B...1.00 RV
AB5 -- None on, 0 outs..........F8..(0.25) RV

Total Batting RV for the game: 8.68.

FAQ on ERV Scoring: If he drove in 10 runs, why does he get only 8.68 RV? Didn't he generate 10 runs? He only gets 8.68 because ERV Scoring gives credit for some of those runs to the batters who were on base when he hit the home run, because they did some of the work too. I like think that ERV Scoring takes the actual runs scored and chops them into pieces and divides the pieces among the players responsible for their creation. He also lost a bit by making an out in his last at bat.

Also note that he got the highest RV he could for each homer because he hit them with two outs, e.g. if he hits the grand slam with no outs, the RV is only 2.29 (one of the neat things about ERV is that it shows how valuable 2 out, run-scoring hits are).

To put this in a context us Nats fans can understand, Cristian Guzman would have to do this TWICE to get his season RV back to 0.00, whereas if any other regular did this ONCE they would instantly take the lead in RV for the team.

ERV Boxscore for Tuesday, April 26

Game Number: 21 , April 26, 2005
Final Score:
Philadelphia 1
Washington 3

Win: Patterson
Loss: Michaels & Utley

Philadelphia

Batter	Pos	PA	Bat	Field	Run	Total RV
RollinsJ	SS	5	(0.75)	0.00	0.09	(0.66)
PolancoP	LF	5	(0.14)	0.00	0.00	(0.14)
AbreuB	RF	4	0.58	0.00	0.00	0.58
ThomeJ	1B	4	0.45	0.00	0.00	0.45
MichaelsJ	CF	4	(1.54)	0.00	0.00	(1.54)
UtleyC	2B	4	(0.70)	0.00	0.00	(0.70)
BellD	3B	3	(0.60)	0.00	0.00	(0.60)
LieberthalM	C	5	(0.63)	0.00	0.00	(0.63)
LieberJ	P	2	(0.62)	0.00	0.00	(0.62)
OffermanJ	PH	1	(0.25)	0.00	0.00	(0.25)
LoftonK	PH	1	0.41	0.00	0.00	0.41
PerezT	PH	1	(0.25)	0.00	0.00	(0.25)
Totals		39	(4.04)	0.00	0.09	(3.95)

Pitcher	BFP	RV
LieberJ	25	0.23
FultzA	5	0.96
AdamsT	4	0.11
Totals	34	1.30

Washington

Batter	Pos	PA	Bat	Field	Run	Total RV
WilkersonB	CF	4	1.60	0.00	0.00	1.60
JohnsonN	1B	3	1.37	(0.11)	0.00	1.25
VidroJ	2B	4	(1.32)	0.00	0.00	(1.32)
GuillenJ	RF	4	(0.34)	0.00	0.00	(0.34)
SledgeT	LF	4	(0.47)	0.00	0.00	(0.47)
CastillaV	3B	4	(0.31)	0.00	0.00	(0.31)
SchneiderB	C	4	(1.21)	(0.09)	0.00	(1.30)
GuzmanC	SS	3	(0.37)	0.00	0.00	(0.37)
PattersonJ	P	2	0.18	0.00	0.00	0.18
BlancoT	PH	1	(0.17)	0.00	0.00	(0.17)
ChurchR	CF	1	(0.25)	0.00	0.00	(0.25)
Totals		34	(1.30)	(0.20)	0.00	(1.51)

Pitcher	BFP	RV
PattersonJ	31	2.51
MajewskiG	1	0.46
AyalaL	4	0.54
CorderoC	3	0.54
Totals	39	4.04

Wins and Losses

It has long been recognized that the pitcher's W-L stat does not really convey much information. Its rules are sometimes arbitrary, and often don't reflect the contribution of the pitcher to the outcome of the game. Most importantly, I think it was Bill James who first asked, "Why single out the pitcher for the 'win' or the 'loss', when baseball is a team game, and any one on the field might be responsible for the win or the loss?"

The ERV Boxscores I've posted can help produce a better W-L stat, because you can assign the win and loss to any player, based on the runs they generate or squander. Here's a way to do it: For the win, any player on the winning team whose RV is greater than the margin of victory gets a share of the win. If no one has enough RV for the whole difference, then the top RV players who combine to cover the spread share in the win. For the losing team, do exactly the same thing but from the other end of the RV spectrum, the most negative RV.

Scroll down and you'll see I've added a Win and Loss indication for the last two games. Last night's win goes to Chase Utley and Cory Lidle (mostly for him as a hitter!), and the loss to Cristian Guzman and Hector Carrasco. Vidro was in line for the loss but his late-inning bat kept him from getting a share. I plan to assign these for the season a keep a tally of W-L record for each player, and I'll post it with the Friday Morning Figures.

ERV Boxscore for Monday, April 25

Dexys suggested that I explain that the numbers in these boxscores are all based around the average runs scored in the 2004 MLB season per game (4.84 runs per game), which means the boxscore is a "zero-sum" system. So the numbers here are "real" runs, just expressed in terms relative to the league average. Note that the pitcher totals equal the opposing team's batting totals, for that reason. If you add a team's Batting RV, Running RV and subtract the opponents Fielding RV, that number should always equal the team's runs minus 4.84. For example, for the Phils, the checksum is -2.53+0.00-(-2.69), which equals +0.16, which does equal 5.00 minus 4.84.

So how do you read this boxscore? It tells you that Chase Utley had the best game for the Phils, as he generated nearly 2 runs, but he wasn't as valuable to them as the Nats defense, since Vidro's and Guzman's errors generate 2.69 runs for the Phils, enough to make the difference in the game. Brian Schneider was the best player for the Nats. Also, because the fielding runs are not included in the pitchers' totals, it shows that Zach Day did not pitch that bad a game (he saved 1.94 runs, which was better than any other pitcher), and I think Frank was bit quick to give him the hook. He did his job, his middle infield let him down.

Game Number: 20 , April 25, 2005
Final Score:
Philadelphia 5
Washington 4

Win: Utley & Lidle
Loss: Guzman & Carrasco

Philadelphia

Batter	Pos	PA	Bat	Field	Run	Total RV
RollinsJ	SS	5	(1.26)	0.00	0.00	(1.26)
PolancoP	LF	5	0.49	0.00	0.00	0.49
AbreuB	RF	5	(0.80)	0.00	0.00	(0.80)
ThomeJ	1B	5	(0.12)	0.00	0.00	(0.12)
MichaelsJ	CF	5	0.35	0.00	0.00	0.35
UtleyC	2B	4	1.95	0.00	0.00	1.95
BellD	3B	4	(3.07)	0.00	0.00	(3.07)
LieberthalM	C	4	(1.45)	0.00	0.00	(1.45)
LidleC	P	3	1.03	0.00	0.00	1.03
OffermanJ	PH	1	0.35	0.00	0.00	0.35
Totals		41	(2.53)	0.00	0.00	(2.53)

Pitcher	BFP	RV
LidleC	26	0.23
CormierR	3	0.54
WorrellT	4	(0.71)
WagnerB	6	0.78
Totals	39	0.84

Washington

Batter	Pos	PA	Bat	Field	Run	Total RV
WilkersonB	CF	5	0.97	0.00	0.00	0.97
JohnsonN	1B	5	(0.90)	0.00	0.00	(0.90)
VidroJ	2B	5	1.06	(1.34)	0.00	(0.28)
GuillenJ	RF	4	(0.25)	0.00	0.00	(0.25)
SledgeT	LF	4	(0.71)	0.00	0.00	(0.71)
CastillaV	3B	4	(0.66)	0.00	0.00	(0.66)
SchneiderB	C	3	2.04	0.00	0.00	2.04
GuzmanC	SS	3	(1.01)	(1.35)	0.00	(2.36)
DayZ	P	2	(0.47)	0.00	0.00	(0.47)
CarrollJ	SS	2	(0.42)	0.00	0.00	(0.42)
BennettG	PH	1	(0.25)	0.00	0.00	(0.25)
BlancoT	PH	1	(0.25)	0.00	0.00	(0.25)
Totals			(0.84)	(2.69)	0.00	(3.53)

Pitcher	BFP	RV
DayZ	26	1.94
CarrascoH	3	(1.55)
EischenJ	1	0.52
RauchJ	7	1.08
CorderoC	4	0.54
Totals	41	2.53

A grim two days, then an outstanding win.

Just when you thought this team was slipping into bad habits, along comes an 11-4 laugher to stop the slide. Friday and Saturday were grim indeed, especially Friday, where we had a chance to take that game even though the Mets deserved to win on Glavine's strong outing. But when Wilkie hits that double with no outs in the 8th, I'm thinking the late-inning heroics are continuing (ERV at that point is over 2 runs, and we are down 3-1 -- Wilkie's double to make it 2nd and 3rd with no outs is the most RV you can get on one at bat without scoring a run (1.21)) But, of course, Frank has Guzman hitting second, and he starts pouring water on our fire right away. The fifth inning on Saturday was little league all the way, and hopefully spells the end for Carlos Baerga's aspirations to start.

But today was key, and almost makes up for it all. Why? Our second "10-game segment" is almost over, and we stand 4-5 (we went 6-4 in the first), so we are still fighting for a 5-5. Livan was going, and if there is anything your ace MUST do, it is win games like this to right the ship. We didn't get swept, and just avoiding sweeps keeps you in the hunt. And it keeps us on the pace I described here (split on the road, win 2 of 3 at home) making our road record 6-6.

But the baseball season, even in April, offers no rest. We need to take 2 of 3 from the Phils to keep it up. But at that link above I noted that if we go 10-10 in our first 20, we should be very pleased, given the teams we've played. In sum, a terrific start.

Introducing ... The ERV Boxscore!

After dozens of man-hours, the crack R&D team here at Nats Blog are finally able to unveil their latest innovation to the devoted Nats Blog readers -- the ERV Boxscore! Below is the first sample, from today's game.

An initial note: all values are stated from the perspective of the team, so that positive is always good and negative is always bad. For example, a pitcher with a positive RV has done well, while one with a negative RV has done not so well.
_______________________________________________

Game Number: 19 , April 24, 2005
Final Score:
Washington 11
New York 4

Win: Wilkerson, Vidro & Castilla
Loss: Zambrano, Matthews & Diaz

Washington

Batter	Pos	PA	Bat	Field	Run	Total RV
WilkersonB	CF	6	3.26	0.00	0.16	3.42
JohnsonN	1B	6	0.81	(0.64)	0.16	0.33
VidroJ	2B	5	2.53	0.00	0.00	2.53
GuillenJ	RF	5	0.67	0.00	0.00	0.67
SledgeT	LF	5	(1.47)	0.00	0.00	(1.47)
CastillaV	3B	5	1.79	0.00	0.25	2.04
BennettG	C	5	0.80	0.00	0.00	0.80
GuzmanC	SS	5	(1.01)	0.00	0.00	(1.01)
HernandezL	P	4	(0.58)	0.00	0.00	(0.58)
DavisJ	LF	1	(0.38)	0.00	0.00	(0.38)
CarrollJ	2B	1	(0.52)	0.00	0.00	(0.52)
Totals		48	5.91	(0.64)	0.57	5.85

Pitcher	BFP	RV
HernandezL	31	1.40
EischenJ	2	(0.01)
MajewskiG	8	0.09
Totals	41	1.48

New York

Batter	Pos	PA	Bat	Field	Run	Total RV
ReyesJ	SS	5	(0.44)	0.00	0.00	(0.44)
MatsuiK	2B	5	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.01
BeltranC	CF	5	(0.33)	0.00	0.00	(0.33)
PiazzaM	C	5	0.71	1.06	0.00	1.77
FloydC	LF	5	(0.18)	0.00	0.00	(0.18)
MientkiewiczD	1B	4	(0.71)	0.00	0.00	(0.71)
WrightD	3B	3	0.51	(1.30)	0.00	(0.80)
DiazV	RF	4	(1.11)	0.00	0.00	(1.11)
ZambranoV	P	2	0.03	0.00	0.00	0.03
WoodwardC	3B	2	(0.41)	0.00	0.00	(0.41)
CairoM	PH	1	0.42	0.00	0.00	0.42
Totals		41	(1.48)	(0.25)	0.00	(1.73)

Pitcher	BFP	RV
ZambranoV	29	(3.66)
AybarM	7	(0.33)
MatthewsM	6	(2.80)
KooD	1	0.34
DeJeanM	5	0.54
Totals	48	(5.91)

Judgment calls: Top first, Piazza given fielding credit for tagging out Wilkerson at home.

Friday Morning Evening Figures

Sorry for the delay in posting these. I will have more notes and explanation later this evening, especially for the new Win Value column.

Oh, BTW, Guzman's error yesterday had a negative 2.62 RV, by far the highest fielding blunder of the year, and an absolute RV value among the highest all year for any event.

Name	PA	BFP	Batting	Fielding	Running	Pitching	Total RV	Win Value
CastillaV	53	0	7.53	0.64	(0.90)	0.00	7.28	1.78
VidroJ	67	0	7.44	(0.64)	0.00	0.00	6.80	2.91
PattersonJ	6	76	(1.13)	0.00	0.00	7.82	6.69	5.56
CorderoC	0	43	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.97	4.97	1.82
GuillenJ	69	0	3.30	0.58	(0.73)	0.00	3.15	1.62
TuckerT	0	20	0.00	(0.25)	0.00	3.02	2.77	0.67
SledgeT	22	0	2.15	0.25	0.25	0.00	2.65	(0.49)
AyalaL	1	40	(0.17)	0.00	0.00	2.73	2.55	1.15
MajewskiG	0	12	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.61	1.61	0.26
JohnsonN	65	0	2.06	(0.21)	(0.53)	0.00	1.33	(0.48)
WilkersonB	72	0	1.27	0.22	(0.48)	0.00	1.01	1.64
CarrascoH	0	3	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.54	0.54	0.26
EischenJ	1	24	0.26	0.00	0.00	(0.26)	(0.00)	0.26
SchneiderB	54	0	(1.33)	0.53	0.47	0.00	(0.33)	0.82
BennettG	8	0	(0.30)	(0.12)	0.00	0.00	(0.42)	0.45
LoaizaE	6	85	(1.01)	(0.26)	0.00	0.56	(0.70)	(1.33)
BlancoT	6	0	(0.99)	0.00	0.00	0.00	(0.99)	(0.41)
OhkaT	6	75	(0.70)	0.07	0.00	(0.54)	(1.17)	(1.81)
CarrollJ	13	0	(1.35)	0.00	0.00	0.00	(1.35)	(0.75)
CorderoW	4	0	(1.68)	0.00	0.00	0.00	(1.68)	(0.91)
BaergaC	9	0	(2.27)	0.00	0.00	0.00	(2.27)	(0.54)
DayZ	5	74	(1.00)	(0.23)	0.00	(1.25)	(2.48)	(1.07)
DavisJ	19	0	(2.55)	0.00	(0.16)	0.00	(2.70)	(1.46)
HernandezL	10	108	(1.80)	(0.16)	0.00	(2.54)	(4.51)	0.85
ChurchR	36	0	(5.06)	0.00	0.00	0.00	(5.06)	(2.35)
HorganJ	0	28	0.00	0.00	0.00	(6.01)	(6.01)	(0.60)
OsunaA	0	23	0.00	0.00	0.00	(9.43)	(9.43)	(0.77)
GuzmanC	63	0	(11.41)	(2.34)	(0.31)	0.00	(14.07)	(9.99)

Through Thursday, April 21.

Notes:

-- What is RV anyway? It is a way of measuring the value of any event in a baseball game by comparing the Expected Run Value (ERV) for the state of the game before and after the event. Search the posts on the blog for more detailed information. Essentially, it translates everything in a game into Run Value, which is equivalent to runs, which are the currency of a baseball game. A positive RV means runs generated by that player, a negative RV means runs lost by that player. For pitching and fielding, runs saved by those activities are expressed as positives. For example, John Patterson's pitching this season has prevented 7.82 opposing runs from scoring, so he gets a plus 7.82 in the pitching column. In contrast, Cristian Guzman's fielding has given the opponents 2.34 runs, so he gets a negative 2.34 in his fielding column.

-- What can you conclude from these figures? That Vinny Castilla and Jose Vidro have each generated over 7 runs with their bats for the Nats this season, while Guzman has cost the Nats over 11 runs with his bat. In other words, had the average 2004 MLB player batted for Guzman each time this year, the Nats would have scored 11 more runs.

-- What is Win Value? This is an experimental stat I am working on. RV is independent of the score and inning of a game -- i.e. a solo homer with no outs in the top of the first has the same RV as a solo homer with 2 outs in the ninth in a 10-2 ballgame. Win Value attempts to modify RV in a way to reflect the score and inning of the game. Essentially, it works like this -- if a game is tied, the WV for an event is the full value of the RV. For other circumstances, the WV equals the RV times a discount factor, which is derived from the score of the game and the inning. In general, the larger the score differential and the later in the game, the more heavily discounted the WV is from the RV. For example, a 10-0 game in the ninth, the RV is discounted so much that the WV is almost always 0.

Another way to look at it is that WV is an "inflation-adjusted" RV. If you think of runs as the currency with which a win is purchased, some runs are more valuable than others. The solo home run in the Ninth of a tie game is worth a lot more than the grand slam in the ninth when your behind 10-0.

So what can you tell from WV? I'm still not quite sure, but I think it reflects the number of "valuable" runs the player has generated or lost, meaning the runs that change the state of the game (from losing to tied or to winning). Differences between RV and WV can tell you which players are producing when it matters most (or not). For example, Livan Hernandez has a positive WV and a negative RV, which I think is accurate, because he has pitched pretty well for most of his innings, having given away a bunch of runs in one inning against the Phils. Likewise, Dexys said to me at the home opener, "it seems like Schneider is hitting better than .250". Sure enough, at the time and through Thursday, Schneider has had a higher WV than RV.

But I am still watching this closely to see if it makes sense.

-- New Feature! I am very close to being able to generate ERV box scores for each Nats game quickly, and as soon as I finalize that I will start posting them for individual games. They give you a clear picture of who really contributed to the win or loss.

Boswell, Guzman And ERV

Here's a test for DM's ERV scoring based on subjective fielding decisions. Boswell writes:

Yesterday, Washington would have trailed 6-1 with average defense. Instead, four fine plays -- three of them by shortstop Cristian Guzman -- kept the deficit at 3-1. After scoring seven runs in the seventh inning on Saturday to blow open a game, Washington erupted for six runs in the seventh yesterday.

(emphasis added). So, DM, did you score those Guzman plays as extraordinary, and how many expected runs did they save?

DM's Opening Night Thoughts

I don't have much to add to SNV and Dexys, who captured a lot of the excitement last night. As they and others describe, RFK is shabby and worn-out, and there is a slapdash feel to the refurbishment. But I fell in love with baseball in a shabby, worn-out stadium (the Vet), and last night reminded me why. What impressed me the most were the Nats and their fans -- both acted like it was a wedding after a long engagement, not a nervous first date. The play was superb (we have a lot of tough-minded players, it appears -- a sliver lining from the Montreal trauma, perhaps) and the crowd was great (there really are a lot of good baseball fans in DC -- despite the "glam" around us, our section knew the ropes). You can build a new ballpark with no wait for barbecue chicken sandwiches and TVs in the bathrooms, but as long as Nick Johnson is diving to his left to rob a double and the crowd rightfully appreciates that, I'll be fine.

SNV's Opening Night Thoughts

Semi-randomly arranged, Peter-King-style:

Food!

The food I tried at RFK - a hot dog and Italian sausage - was awful. Adding to the misery was the fact that the first time I tried to get said Italian sausage, they had run out and it was a 10-minute wait to get one, forcing me to the hot dog option. What, you didn't expect a sellout?

Food is a key part of the ballpark experience. It's also something that can be improved without building a new stadium. We need better food, fast.

Fun!

DM, Dexy's and I had a GREAT time at the game, highlighted by a number of great "buck sez" bets. DM might write on this more, but my personal favorite was my bet that there would be a broken bat in the 4th inning. I went down to defeat, but it was a fun one nevertheless. DM's favorite was when I said "buck sez this inning [the top of the 6th] finishes by 8:38!" and DM took it. Since the scoreboard was tracking seconds (see more on scoreboard later), it was relatively exciting. But Glaus's walk pretty much sealed the deal and I handed a GW to DM.

Fame!

There were numerous celebrities or quasi-celebrities sitting around us, including John McCain, George Will, Darrell Green, Bob Novak and Fred Barnes. We had as good or better seats than all but John McCain, who was wearing a D-Backs hat anyway and likely was not sitting in his own seats.

I do not regret for an instant that I'm not famous. Being famous really sucks.

Foul Balls!

None. Damn.

Flaws!

The most glaring flaws were related to the scoreboard. Oh, let me count the flaw!

1. No out-of-town scoreboard. Inconceivable.
2. On the left field scoreboard, it was 11-3 Nats in the top of the 9th. No kidding. Of course, that was only slightly worse than the 6-0 they had in previous innings.
3. Pitch Speed: [we never did see a pitch speed. How about pitch count?]
4. The lack of an error was recognized on the scoreboard was, for most of the game, recognized by a blank rather than a "0." Bush league.
5. K Count - it was up for most of the game, taking up critical scoreboard space. Making things worse, it was wrong for most of the game.

Although most of these thoughts are critical, it was fantastic to watch a baseball game in DC. RFK is a strange stadium from a different era, but as long as there is grass between the lines, and players on the field, you can't not love the fun at the old ball park.

Friday Morning Figures, Installment 2

Here are the RV stats, through Thursday 4/14:

Name	PA	BFP	Batting	Fielding	Running	Pitching	Total
CastillaV	31	0	5.65	0.64	(0.90)	0.00	5.40
AyalaL	1	23	(0.17)	0.00	0.00	3.82	3.65
GuillenJ	44	0	2.73	0.58	(0.73)	0.00	2.58
CorderoC	0	30	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.47	2.47
VidroJ	43	0	3.08	(0.64)	0.00	0.00	2.45
SledgeT	13	0	2.03	0.25	0.09	0.00	2.37
TuckerT	0	14	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.73	1.73
OhkaT	5	52	(0.26)	0.16	0.00	1.06	0.96
PattersonJ	2	26	(0.35)	0.00	0.00	0.79	0.44
LoaizaE	4	56	(1.16)	0.64	0.00	0.76	0.24
WilkersonB	46	0	1.10	(0.81)	(0.64)	0.00	(0.36)
JohnsonN	41	0	0.43	(0.21)	(0.62)	0.00	(0.39)
SchneiderB	35	0	(0.82)	0.27	0.00	0.00	(0.55)
ChurchR	23	0	(0.63)	0.00	0.00	0.00	(0.63)
BlancoT	5	0	(0.74)	0.00	0.00	0.00	(0.74)
BaergaC	4	0	(1.00)	0.00	0.00	0.00	(1.00)
HernandezL	8	83	(1.54)	(0.16)	0.00	0.68	(1.02)
EischenJ	0	16	0.00	0.00	0.00	(1.20)	(1.20)
DavisJ	12	0	(1.74)	0.00	0.09	0.00	(1.65)
CorderoW	4	0	(1.68)	0.00	0.00	0.00	(1.68)
HorganJ	0	17	0.00	0.00	0.00	(2.40)	(2.40)
DayZ	3	45	(0.08)	0.00	0.00	(5.35)	(5.43)
OsunaA	0	23	0.00	0.00	0.00	(9.43)	(9.43)
GuzmanC	42	0	(9.73)	(0.38)	(0.44)	0.00	(10.54)

Note: I've combined pitchers and hitters to compare who truly has been the most valuable player.

Judgement Calls: As I mentioned here, I have made the following judgment calls about fielding or running plays. If you disagree, please comment and I will consider changing the scoring on that play:

Phils, 4/4/05, Bot 5th, 1 out: SledgeT gets fielding credit for throwing out D. Bell at 3rd

Phils, 4/4/05, Bot 6th, 1 out: JohnsonN gets a fielding debit for dropping pitcher bunt, but CastillaV gets fielding credit for picking up that ball and throwing out runner.

Phils 4/6/05, Top 2, 1 out: GuillenJ given running debit for getting thrown out at third.

Phils 4/7/05, Bot 1, 0 Out: LoaizaE gets fielding credit for nice play on J Rollins bunt.

Phils 4/7/05, Top 5, 0 Out: D Bell given fielding debit, despite official scorer, for dropped bunt popup.

Phils 4/7/05, Bot 7th, 1 Out: JohnsonN given fielding debit due to bobble which prevented him from getting lead runner.

Marlins, 4/8/05, Bot 1st, 2 outs: CastillaV given fielding debit for failure to catch foul pop up.

Marlins, 4/8/05, Bot 8th, 1 out: CastilloL and GonzalezA given running credit for taking hte extra base

Marlins, 4/9/05, Top 9th, 1 out: GuzmanC given running credit for turning single into a double.

[More to come]

[UH-OH: I just noticed that my chart does not include Jamey Carroll, Ryan Church or Gary Bennett. I'll fix it as soon as I can]

Any Number of Milestones

Well, not only are DM, Dexy's and yours truly heading off to Opening Night [Ed. note - those lyrics sites do sure have some nasty plug-in pop-ups, don't they?], we at Nats Blog are happy to celebrate our 10,000th visit. Now, about 7,000 of those visits are just DM, Dexy's and yours truly loading the page over and over again to see what each other have said, but at least our counter says 10,000!

(Sadly, my White Sox blog, in operation for 8 months longer and with far more meaningful content, has fewer than 6,000 hits. Oh well, I don't have two co-authors to jack my hit count up.)

So tonight is the night. It's all been essentially a fantasy up until this point. DM has made the point in the past that he won't believe it's happening until he's sitting in the seats, drinking a beer and watching a game that counts in the standing. Well, we cross that bridge tonight, old buddy (bridge/Alec Guinness/beer - you get it, right?). You'll have to be a believer tonight.

Tonight's gear for SNV - fitted blue road cap, size 7 1/4, gray sweater, John Kerry-barn-jacket-purchased-well-before-John-Kerry-started-wearing-barn-jackets. Under it all....a long sleeve White Sox t-shirt...

[DM Edit: Given the historic moment, it is worth looking back at our first post, which shows that this blog was born of skepticism and will remain of skepticism in many things. Even tonight, I've heard that Linda Cropp will be going to the game, so I still think there is room for a fiasco. But even crusty old me is getting pumped -- Dexys and I were remarking that this might be the biggest sports event we've ever been to, or at least the one with the most hype and anticipation. It should be a blast, and let's hope there's more to come in October!]

I Guess It Wasn't Us...It Was Him

Dontrelle Willis pitched his second straight shutout today, allowing only three hits against the potent Phillie lineup. Two games, two complete game shutouts, only 8 hits allowed by Mr. Willis.

To give you a bit of reference, the AL co-leaders in shutouts last year had only two shutouts.

Is Florida looking imposing or what? That's a pretty good team.

A Bit Off-Topic: The Wisdom of Crowds and the New Pope

A very good Op-ed explaining the budding gambling markets trying to handicap the selection of the next Pope. It does a nice job of explaining why such markets end up being good predictors of events, with some really fascinating history bits, such as the Papal Bull of 1591 that tried to stop the rampant gambling on Pope selection.

Hat tip: Off-Wing Opinion

Win Probability Scoring

As an alternative to ERV scoring, the Cheat's blog just did a White Sox game based on Win Probability Scoring - how much a particular player adds to a team's win probability by his performance. Here's the link. Although it's intriguing as a concept - and has been suggested by others - there are some data problems with WPA at this point. First, the data set for win probabilities may be a little off at this point. The data, as I understand it, is from 1979-1990. And, as it turns out, baseball has changed a little bit since 1990.

In addition, the WPA statistic is not terribly predictive in nature - a batter gets more WPA points if he hits a home run in the 9th inning of a 1-0 game than he does if he hits it in the 5th inning. In addition, I wonder how well it tracks the performance of a pitcher who pitches well but loses. It's interesting, and I think you'd be interested in reading the Cheat's scoring as well as the Hardball Times article linked.

Solving the Fielding Problem

No, not the Nats' fielding -- so far that has been pretty good. I'm talking about the problem of evaluating fielding through statistics. The fundamental issue is one of subjectivity. No matter how you cut it, assessing fielding requires a judgment about whether the fielder "should have" made the play, according to a subjective standard. I recall reading an article from the late 1980s where several statheads concluded that we should get rid of the Error stat completely, because it was administered so subjectively around the league as to provide no meaningful information.

ERV scoring allows you to assign an objective value to any event in the game, by comparing the state of the game (the ERV) before and after the event. You can follow the official scorer and assign a value to errors. I would like to assign values to both errors AND good fielding plays, like throwing a runner out at home or robbing a homerun or diving to stop a grounder from going through for a hit. But both Dexys and SuperNoVa rightly expressed concern about my judgment in determining which plays were "good."

What to do? Here's my idea. Turn the task over to the Wisdom of Crowds -- have as many people as possible score the game and make independent decisions about the whether the play is good or not. Just as the value of a stock (an inherently subjective task) is determined by the judgment of independent buyer/seller transactions, the most accurate assessment of fielding will be made by the collective wisdom. ERV scoring provides a good common language for scorers to use in expressing the value of the plays, which can be compared to others. You could average the ERV values or go democractic and adopt the most prevalent view, but in either case you will have a good assessment of the fielding event (and the baserunning event, and other events that require subjective judgement about their value).

Yuda asks here whether the ERV figures, such as Friday Morning Figures, reflect our judgments or those of the official scorer. SuperNoVa follows the official scorer. In contrast, I have chosen to try to reflect good plays, and have deviated from the official scorer on occasion. So the Friday Morning Figures reflect that judgment. As a small first step towards implementing my idea, what I will do each Friday is identify those events where I made such judgments, and you can tell me where I'm wrong (and others I missed), and I will correct where it appears the crowd sees it differently.

Reflections on the Weekend

Random bits on the past three games ...

Strange to feel good after being outscored 19-3. But that approach worked for the 1960 Pirates ...

If there is such a thing as a "good" 9-0 loss, Friday night was it. The way Willis was pitching, we lose that game 1-0 even if the pitchers don't melt down. The other 8 runs are essentially irrelvant ...

Saturday's game was another treat, like our first win. Guillen with another "right back at you" dinger, and then he slides like Paolo Maldini trying to keep a ball from going into touch to hold Pierre to a double. And with ERV Scoring, we can know that that play saved the Nats 0.25 runs. Guillen's RV line that night: 1.53 runs, with 1.28 batting. He also impresses with his cryptic taunt "LoDuca is LoDuca, Guillen is Guillen" remark after the game.

Speaking of LoDuca, another neat thing about ERV Scoring is that you can saddle him with a value for his premature home run trot that prevented him from going to second on a ball off the wall -- it cost the Marlins 0.09 runs ...

Sunday's game was looking to be another classic until dam burst in the eighth. But like Friday, we were facing a good pitcher who had his stuff, so a 8-0 loss is the same as a 1-0 loss. I thought Johnson's attempt to score in the first was a good gamble. It took a nice play by all three Marlins involved to just get him. And as the game went on, it looked even better, as runs appeared to be at a real premium, until 8th ...

As suggested here and elsewhere, Guzman began batting eighth on Saturday, which is good, but only a partial solution. Apparently tired of killing us with his bat, he turned to his glove, where his error cost the Nats 1.25 runs according to ERV. Here's his season RV line through Sunday:

Batting: -5.99 runs
Fielding: -1.25 runs
Running: -0.44 runs
Total: -7.67 runs

For comparison, he has cost the Nats more runs than the players with the next three lowest RV totals (-2.34, -1.94 and -1.89) combined! Somewhat surprisingly, the -2.34 is Vidro.

On the other side of the ERV ledger, Guillen has now passed Wilkerson for the Total RV lead, thanks to his defense. Wilkerson still leads in batting alone. Only four Nats have a positive RV, reflecting the few runs scored by the Nats in the past three games, none of which met the league average of 4.84 runs per game per team.

Live Baseball with The Nats Blog

If any of our readers would like to attend a Nats game with one or more of the founders of Nats Blog, please send an email to Dexys at dexys_midnight@yahoo.com. Trust us, if you are a true Nats fan, you'll be glad you did.

Another Important Number

As we sit in first alone, our magic number is 160.

The crowds at tradesports.com remain skeptical, as they say we have a 1 percent chance of winning the division. Maybe they missed the telecasts of our two victories.

Friday Morning Figures

Today we begin what we hope is a weekly feature here at Nats Blog: ERV scoring totals for the Nats. As explained here, ERV scoring measures the amount of runs each player has contributed to (or detracted from) the Nats success by comparing how that player improved or reduced the Nats expected runs each time he came to the plate, made or failed to make a play in the field, stole a base, faced a batter, etc.

For example, look at Brad Wilkerson's line. His smoking bat has produce over 4 more runs than the average in the past three games, but his fielding (the error yesterday that plated one run for the Phils) has cost them 0.81 runs and his baserunning has cost them 0.64 runs. Still, he has an impressive 2.57 overall runs contributed to the Nats, and clearly leads the team. In contrast, Guzman has cost the Nats 3.36 runs with his anemic bat, essentially nullifying Wilkerson's success. (For reference, the average team scores about 0.54 runs per inning, or about 4.8 runs per game. The RV figures here start from this average).

For pitchers, the data is expressed from the Nats perspective, so a positive number is good -- think of it as runs saved versus runs given away. For example, Luis Ayala has prevented 2.67 runs so far for the Nats, i.e. allowed 2.67 runs less than the average for the situations when he has pitched. Livan's poor outing puts him at the bottom, with over 4 runs given to the opponents. Note that these figures necessarily exclude errors and great fielding plays from their totals, as well as good baserunning by the opponents (except for steals, which are set out in the Running column for pitchers). So it gives you a relatively "pure" evaluation of the pitcher's performance.

Note that the scoring here is not entirely objective -- I have used my judgment about whether a fielding play was a great play, and also have deviated from the official scorer on occasion (e.g., I scored David Bell's dropped bunt popup yesterday an error (i.e. I assigned a portion of the RV to Bell's fielding rather than the batter), where the scorer said it was a hit -- both Phillies announcers agreed it should have been an error). My standards are pretty high for great plays, and I recognize them sparingly. I'm working on a post about an idea to make the judgments more objective.

This whole system is very much a work in progress, and comments are welcome. If interested, send an email to natsblog@gmail.com and I will send you the Excel workbook I am using to follow the season. If you are a geek like me, it's a lot of fun to chart a game with it.

Name	PA	Batting	Fielding	Running	Total	Tot/PA
WilkersonB	15	4.02	(0.81)	(0.64)	2.57	0.171
CastillaV	14	1.80	0.74	(0.90)	1.65	0.118
VidroJ	15	0.85	0.00	0.00	0.85	0.056
GuillenJ	15	1.31	0.00	(0.73)	0.58	0.039
JohnsonN	12	1.39	(1.06)	0.00	0.33	0.027
HernandezL	2	(0.07)	0.00	0.00	(0.07)	(0.036)
LoaizaE	2	(0.81)	0.64	0.00	(0.17)	(0.086)
ChurchR	1	(0.17)	0.00	0.00	(0.17)	(0.173)
SledgeT	10	(0.30)	0.00	0.00	(0.30)	(0.030)
SchneiderB	13	(0.20)	(0.25)	0.00	(0.45)	(0.035)
DavisJ	5	(0.63)	0.00	0.09	(0.54)	(0.108)
BlancoT	2	(0.55)	0.00	0.00	(0.55)	(0.275)
CorderoW	4	(1.68)	0.00	0.00	(1.68)	(0.419)
GuzmanC	15	(3.36)	0.00	0.00	(3.36)	(0.224)

Pitchers	BFP	Pitching	Running	Total	Tot/BFP
AyalaL	7	2.67	0.00	2.67	0.381
CorderoC	11	1.61	0.00	1.61	0.147
HorganJ	8	1.06	0.00	1.06	0.133
DayZ	23	0.11	0.00	0.11	0.005
OhkaT	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	#DIV/0!
TuckerT	1	(0.13)	0.00	(0.13)	(0.133)
LoaizaE	29	(0.26)	0.00	(0.26)	(0.009)
OsunaA	8	(0.35)	0.00	(0.35)	(0.044)
EischenJ	7	(0.52)	0.00	(0.52)	(0.074)
HernandezL	24	(4.02)	(0.16)	(4.18)	(0.174)

ERV Scoring, Game 2

Without further ado....Wilkerson clearly had a huge game, as did Castilla. Note - Wilkerson's stolen base cost the Nats .6393 Expected Runs, and Guillen's attempt to go to third cost the Nats .7117 runs. The Phillies handed the Nats about .8 runs with their two errors.

Player	PA 1	PA 2	PA 3	PA 4	PA 5
Wilkerson	0.388	1	0.1325	0.2488	1.1574
Guzman	-0.1731	0.1325	-0.246	-0.3623	-0.6179
Vidro	-0.1135	-0.246	-0.2513	0.388	0.6217
Guillen	0.388	-0.2513	0	1.612	-0.4492
Johnson	-0.3763	-0.1731	1.1608	-0.2513	0.2473
Castilla	0.4081	0.2224	-0.3745	0.263	1.514
Sledge	-0.246	-0.3359	-0.3359	0.4081	0.1229
Schneider	-0.2513	-0.2513	-0.2513	0.6369	-0.7864
Day	-0.1731	-0.1731
Church			-0.1731
Cordero				-0.4972
JJ Davis					-0.8082

Nats Win! Nats Win!

What a delightful first victory! Zach Day cruising along for five and two-thirds (I love fast working pitchers), with some super defense in the fifth (Vinny Castilla has shown some leather so far), then suddenly we are behind. But then a comeback, just as sudden -- Guillen's homer a shock. All those balls going over Kenny Lofton's head (if the doubles didn't bounce over the fence, we'd have two more runs). Wilkerson's cycle in the midst of all, an event more rare than a no-hitter. Ayala stomping on the Phils in the eighth ( I wish he would have pitched the ninth too). And a Backward K to end it. Sweet!

Of course, some dark spots, such as Guzman, who should bat no higher than 8th. The offense is a bit overheated, with 16 hits but only 7 runs. What the hell was Wilkerson doing stealing in the first? Day's meltdown seemed to relate to him pitching from the stretch.

But in the end a great night. Now, let's win the series tomorrow!

Taking the Extra Base

Thinking about Vinny Castilla getting thrown out at second prompted me to consider all of the situations where a runner can take the extra base, and what the risk/reward is for each situation. I'm sure someone has calculated this before, but below is the table from the 2004 ERV data. It shows the percentage of time you must be successful in taking the base to make it work the risk (the text in parentheses are other runners on the bases). Conclusions drawn from it are:

(1) The Rule of 70: In most situations (like stealing 2nd) you have be successful at least 70% of the time to make the risk worthwhile.

(2) The old adage "Never make the first out or last out at third base" is generally true if no other runners are on.

(3) Never try to take 3d with two outs.

(4) Never try to score from 3d with no outs.

(5) Trying to score from 3d with two outs is usually a good risk.

Situation	No Outs	One Out	Two Outs
1st to 2nd	73%	73%	73%
1st to 2nd (3d)	76%	78%	84%
2d to 3d	75%	70%	93%
2d to 3d (1st)	70%	73%	88%
3d to Home	93%	73%	33%
3d to Home (1st)	80%	68%	42%
3d to Home (1st & 2nd)	86%	76%	55%

ERV Scoring, Game 1

As we may or may not have promised a while ago, Nats Blog will be (hopefully) ERV scoring each Nats game this year. If you remember, ERV scoring is based on the principle of judging a plate appearance based upon the change in the expected value (in runs) of the situation before and after the hitter's plate. Thus, if the Nats would expect to score 2 runs with bases loaded an nobody out, a grand slam would have the value of: 4 runs- 2 expected runs + expected value of nobody on nobody out = ERV of plate appearance. Remember, we are using the end-of-2004 ERV values provided by Baseball Prospectus, which will have to be adjusted (retroactively) at the end of the 2005 season. The numbers won't move terribly much, however.

Anyway, I assure you it's all very scientific.

Here's the log I put together:

Player	PA 1	PA 2	PA 3	PA 4	PA 5
Wilkerson	0.388	-0.2513	-0.3036	-0.5219	-0.3036
Guzman	-0.3763	-0.1731	0.2145	-0.2513	-0.246
Vidro	-0.3036	-0.1135	-0.4605	0.263	-0.2513
Guillen	-0.246	-0.2513	-0.2513	0.4081	-0.1731
Johnson	0.388	0.263	-0.1731	0.6369	-0.1135
Castilla	-0.3408	-0.3036	0.1325	1
Sledge	0.1413	-0.246	1.8675	-1.5946
Schneider	0.2224	-0.2513	0.1325	0.388
Hernandez	-0.3359	0.263
JJ Davis			0.2759
Blanco				-0.3763

A couple of notes: Castilla getting a hit and then getting thrown out at second base while Johnson went to third was a net negative for the Nats the way I scored it. Although he, in the abstract, turned a man-on-first, no-one-out situation (.9259 runs) into a man-on-third, one-out situation (.9722 runs), in reality, his attempt to get to second base turned a man-on-first, man-on-second situation (after his hit) into a man-on-third, one-out situation, a net negative. Sorry, that's what the numbers say.

In addition, note Terrmel Sledge's two-out, two-run home run in the 6th: +1.8765 runs! However, the T-man giveth, the T-man taketh away. His double play ball with the bases loaded later in the game was almost as bad as his home run was good: -1.5946 runs. Sledge was still positive on the day, but that double-play ball really hurt (as anyone watching the game would note as well).

You call that tough ...

SuperNoVa, you must be kidding. I had to watch the Nats play my team, the Phils. Couldn't avoid the conflict.

How'd I do? Nats all the way, baby. I didn't realize it until I pumped my fist when Horgan struck out Abreu and Thome with the bases loaded in the sixth.

I used the immigrant metaphor on this blog early on (I'm sure that's where Brooks got it). I guess coming from Phillies country is like being a dissident from Soviet Armenia in the 1980s -- you don't look back fondly.

BTW, I watched the game at work intermittently, and it seemed like every time I checked in the Phils had the bases loaded. It may be a loooong season ...

Nationals Baseball and the Hearts and Minds

Well, today was the ultimate test for Nationals Baseball and SuperNova. The Nats game was on opposite DirecTV's Extra Innings showing of the White Sox and Jndjans. Would I be like David Brooks and acknowledge the rectitude of commitment to the Nats? Brooks wrote of his potential split allegiance:

If my love for the Mets is of this sort, then it is proper that I transfer my affections to the Nats. For I have immigrated to Washington, and we immigrants are obliged to set nostalgia aside and assimilate to our new civilization. As Marshall Wittman writes on his Bull Moose blog, "No dual loyalty for the national pastime."

Well, it's going to take more than today. I watched the White Sox vs. Jndjans. Mark Buehrle was brilliant in a Sox 1-0 victory. I flipped over to WDCA-20 to watch the Nats (then down 7-4, and with Ex-Sox and Mullet-Hall-of-Famer Antonio Osuna on the mound), and I felt like I wanted the Nats to come back, but...it wasn't the same.

So I need some work. How about you, dear reader?

Nats on TV-20 Tomorrow at 3:05

In case you missed it, the opener against the Phils will be shown on Channel 20 in DC tomorrow at 3:05 PM. I heard today that Mel Proctor and Ron Darling will be the announcers. This story gives the background, and here's a tentative schedule. Note that they have not settled on the cable outlet for the games -- I just hope it is carried on DirecTV.

Obituary: NL Turf 1965-2004

As the Nats opened up RFK today (unofficially) and a new chapter in baseball, they also closed the book on another part of history-- for the first time since 1964, all NL teams are playing on natural grass. So the artifical turf era is over in the National League. I doubt many tears will be shed for this passing, but I would like to note the occassion. I grew up with the Phils in the Vet in the 70s, so much of my early baseball experience was on the turf: Phils versus the Big Red Machine, Phils versus the Pirates, Phils versus the Expos. In fact, in the late 70s/early 80s, the NL was dominated by turf, and the teams that played on it were good: Reds, Cards, Phils, Pirates, Astros, Expos. My wife, a longtime Reds fan, thinks turf at Riverfront is an integral part of the Big Red Machine -- if you consider Concepcion's candy arm at short bouncing throws to first, maybe she's right. In those days, I would never have thought it was going away.

But it has. So long turf. Can't say I'll miss you, though.

The New York "Media"

It is an unchallenged sports truism these days that New York is the hardest place to play professional sports due to the intense media scrutiny and expectations. Witness Randy Johnson's first exposure to an aggressive photographer.

But I was in Manhattan today and saw some Mets promo posters around town, such as:

"This year Willie is a Rookie Again"
"This year Pedro teaches the NL to not Crowd"
"Next Year is Now"

This is the METS, not the MEDIA, putting a fair amount of pressure on themselves, in a tough division. I have to admire them for it -- the game favors the bold. But what happens to those posters when they start 11-20?