Monday, April 25, 2005

ERV Boxscore for Monday, April 25

Dexys suggested that I explain that the numbers in these boxscores are all based around the average runs scored in the 2004 MLB season per game (4.84 runs per game), which means the boxscore is a "zero-sum" system. So the numbers here are "real" runs, just expressed in terms relative to the league average. Note that the pitcher totals equal the opposing team's batting totals, for that reason. If you add a team's Batting RV, Running RV and subtract the opponents Fielding RV, that number should always equal the team's runs minus 4.84. For example, for the Phils, the checksum is -2.53+0.00-(-2.69), which equals +0.16, which does equal 5.00 minus 4.84.

So how do you read this boxscore? It tells you that Chase Utley had the best game for the Phils, as he generated nearly 2 runs, but he wasn't as valuable to them as the Nats defense, since Vidro's and Guzman's errors generate 2.69 runs for the Phils, enough to make the difference in the game. Brian Schneider was the best player for the Nats. Also, because the fielding runs are not included in the pitchers' totals, it shows that Zach Day did not pitch that bad a game (he saved 1.94 runs, which was better than any other pitcher), and I think Frank was bit quick to give him the hook. He did his job, his middle infield let him down.

Game Number: 20 , April 25, 2005
Final Score:
Philadelphia 5
Washington 4

Win: Utley & Lidle
Loss: Guzman & Carrasco


Batter Pos PA Bat Field Run Total RV
RollinsJ SS 5 (1.26) 0.00 0.00 (1.26)
PolancoP LF 5 0.49 0.00 0.00 0.49
AbreuB RF 5 (0.80) 0.00 0.00 (0.80)
ThomeJ 1B 5 (0.12) 0.00 0.00 (0.12)
MichaelsJ CF 5 0.35 0.00 0.00 0.35
UtleyC 2B 4 1.95 0.00 0.00 1.95
BellD 3B 4 (3.07) 0.00 0.00 (3.07)
LieberthalM C 4 (1.45) 0.00 0.00 (1.45)
LidleC P 3 1.03 0.00 0.00 1.03
OffermanJ PH 1 0.35 0.00 0.00 0.35
Totals 41 (2.53) 0.00 0.00 (2.53)

Pitcher BFP RV
LidleC 26 0.23
CormierR 3 0.54
WorrellT 4 (0.71)
WagnerB 6 0.78
Totals 39 0.84


Batter Pos PA Bat Field Run Total RV
WilkersonB CF 5 0.97 0.00 0.00 0.97
JohnsonN 1B 5 (0.90) 0.00 0.00 (0.90)
VidroJ 2B 5 1.06 (1.34) 0.00 (0.28)
GuillenJ RF 4 (0.25) 0.00 0.00 (0.25)
SledgeT LF 4 (0.71) 0.00 0.00 (0.71)
CastillaV 3B 4 (0.66) 0.00 0.00 (0.66)
SchneiderB C 3 2.04 0.00 0.00 2.04
GuzmanC SS 3 (1.01) (1.35) 0.00 (2.36)
DayZ P 2 (0.47) 0.00 0.00 (0.47)
CarrollJ SS 2 (0.42) 0.00 0.00 (0.42)
BennettG PH 1 (0.25) 0.00 0.00 (0.25)
BlancoT PH 1 (0.25) 0.00 0.00 (0.25)
Totals (0.84) (2.69) 0.00 (3.53)

Pitcher BFP RV
DayZ 26 1.94
CarrascoH 3 (1.55)
EischenJ 1 0.52
RauchJ 7 1.08
CorderoC 4 0.54
Totals 41 2.53


At 9:51 AM, Blogger tmk67 said...

I was at the game, interesting to see that this confirms my view -- that the two errors cost the game and that Day did his job. It also calls into question lifting Schneider for Bennett . Schneider does have a 50-point split, but he had pounded the ball in his previous at-bat.

At 9:57 AM, Blogger Yuda said...

I'd have lifted Schneider there myself -- he's never hit lefties in his entire career, and hard-throwing lefties like Wagner are generally doubly troubling to mediocre left-handed hitters. Also, Gary Bennett has decent numbers vs. LHP in his career.

At 10:00 AM, Blogger DM said...

The Schneider pull was a tough call. At first I was with Backward K, but the lefty thing is tough, and Bennett had a clutch hit Sunday, so I couldn't fault Frank for that.

As for Day, he should have told him to throw strikes and left him in there. Frank appears to have a temper, and it gets the best of him sometimes.

At 10:29 AM, Blogger tmk67 said...

The career L/R splits for Schneider and Bennett are not that compelling -- Schneider is (.17) batting against Lefties than Righties; Bennet is only +.04 Lefties over Righties.

Moreover, in his career, the leftie Wagner has a slight reversse split, with left-handed hitters hitting .217, vs. .178 for righties.

It was a close call, and the way Schneider was swinging, I would have left him in. That said, Schneider getting a foul ball off the crown jewels earlier in the game might have been the real reason for the decision!

At 10:30 AM, Blogger tmk67 said...

Just to clarify -- the split numbers in my prior post for Schneider/Bennett were OBP. The split numbers for Wanger were Batting Average. (I pulled them quickly off Yahoo and went with what I saw first.)

At 12:49 PM, Blogger Yuda said...

But we're not worried about their individual splits here -- what we're worried about is how each do against lefties.

2002 to present:
Schneider: 225/291/365 (195 PA)
Bennett: 271/324/374 (220 PA)

Bennett isn't going to hit for as much power (in an isolated sense), but he's well ahead of Schneider in terms of BA and OBP. What it boils down to, for me, is you don't want somebody at the plate who's going to make an out 71% of the time in that situation if you can help it.

Also, while Wagner has a slight reverse split in terms of BAA, his OBA and SLA show that righties get on base more and hit for more power against him.

At 3:43 PM, Blogger Chris Needham said...

I think that lifting Schneider was the right move, but I probably would have brought Davis in.

He's stunk on ice this season, but the scouting report on him was that he can handle fastballs, but nothing offspeed. Six of one, half a dozen, I suppose.

The other thing about the lefty/righty splits versus Wagner that is misleading (other than the OBP/SLG thing Yuda points out) is that only top lefties are going to face Wagner.

If Schneider's up, you hit for him. If Brad Wilkerson's up, you let Brad hit. As a result, he's facing a higher quality of lefty batter, meaning the platoon spread is more likely to be less than you'd expect.


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