Wednesday, March 30, 2005

The Wisdom of Crowds ...

is the title of new book describing an old economics principle -- the collected judgments of a large group are almost always more accurate than one person's alone. Although challenged by some examples, it has proven resilient.

What does this have to do with our beloved Nats? Well, at Tradesports, they offer contracts for various sports propositions, that can be traded with others on the site. The current price essentially reflects the "wisdom of crowds" on the Nats fortunes. Right now, it is pretty bleak:

World Series: 0.3 percent chance
NL Pennant: 0.5 percent chance
East Division: 1.2 percent chance

On the bright side, though, there's some money to be made for those who can dream.


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