Tuesday, April 26, 2005

Wins and Losses

It has long been recognized that the pitcher's W-L stat does not really convey much information. Its rules are sometimes arbitrary, and often don't reflect the contribution of the pitcher to the outcome of the game. Most importantly, I think it was Bill James who first asked, "Why single out the pitcher for the 'win' or the 'loss', when baseball is a team game, and any one on the field might be responsible for the win or the loss?"

The ERV Boxscores I've posted can help produce a better W-L stat, because you can assign the win and loss to any player, based on the runs they generate or squander. Here's a way to do it: For the win, any player on the winning team whose RV is greater than the margin of victory gets a share of the win. If no one has enough RV for the whole difference, then the top RV players who combine to cover the spread share in the win. For the losing team, do exactly the same thing but from the other end of the RV spectrum, the most negative RV.

Scroll down and you'll see I've added a Win and Loss indication for the last two games. Last night's win goes to Chase Utley and Cory Lidle (mostly for him as a hitter!), and the loss to Cristian Guzman and Hector Carrasco. Vidro was in line for the loss but his late-inning bat kept him from getting a share. I plan to assign these for the season a keep a tally of W-L record for each player, and I'll post it with the Friday Morning Figures.


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