More on ERV Scoring
I've scored a few Expos games from last year with the ERV scoring method I talked about in this post, and it's been a lot of fun. To make it more clear how it works, here's an sample inning from this game between the Expos and Reds, the top of the fourth, Expos batting. Here's the ERV Chart I'm using:
Note that I have multiplied the Estimated Run Values by 10 and rounded to the whole number, which makes it easier to score this on paper (for me, anyway). So I record "tenths"of a run -- 1 run equals 10 RVs, a half a run equals 5 RVs. With bases loaded and no outs, the average team will score 2.3 runs, or 23 RVs.
So here's what happened in the Expos 4th inning:
Vidro leads off with a double. He gets 7 RVs. Before, 5 RV (O on, O out); After, 12 RV (2nd, 0 out) an increase of 7.
Batista flies out to right, pretty deep, but Willie Moe Pena makes a strong throw to third to hold Vidro at second. This is a good example of how to score fielding with this system. In my judgment, the ball was deep enough to get the runner to third, but for Pena's throw. So I give Batista the RVs he would have gotten if that happened, -2. (Before: 12 ERV, After (1 out, Runner on 3d): 10 ERV, difference of -2). But I give Pena the difference between what should have happened and what did happen, or -3 RV (Runner on 2d, 1 out: 7 RV, instead of runner on 3d, 1 out: 10 RV). So I record the -2 in Batista's box and a -3 in the margin for Pena.
Johnson hits a grounder to second that Jimenez muffs, Vidro to Third. The official scorer ruled this a hit, but I thought the average fielder would have made the play, so I give Jimenez an error. Another good example here. I give Johnson the RVs as if the play had been made, or -3 (Before, 2nd and 1 out: 7 ERV minus After: 3d and 2 out: 4 ERV). Then I give Jimenez the RV that represent the error, the difference between what happened (1st and 3d, 1 out: 12 ERV) and what should have happened (3d, 2 out: 4 ERV) or a +8 RV for the error. (When I compute Jimenez's total RV for the game, this turns into a -8 when combined with his offensive RV -- he had a bad game, since his Batting RV was -11 and his Fielding RV was -8, for a total of -19. He cost the Reds almost 2 runs, and they lost 4-2).
Cabrera hits a sac fly that scores Vidro, Johnson stays at first. Before: 12 ERV (1&3, 1 out); After: 2 ERV (1st, 2 out), plus 10 for the run scored equals a RV of 0 for Cabrera.
Sledge Walks. Before: 2 ERV (1st, 2 out); After: 5 ERV (1st & 2d, 2 outs), so Sledge gets 3 RV.
Schneider flies out to end the inning. Before: 5 ERV; After: 0 ERV (Expos can't score anymore), so Schneider gets a -5 RV.
So here's how my scoresheet looks:
Vidro: 7 RV, 2B, run scored
Batista: -2 RV, F8, Footnote A: Pena gets -3 RV for good throw.
Johnson: -2 RV, E4, Footnote B: Jimenez gets a +8 RV for Error.
Cabrera: 0 RV, Sac F8
Sledge: 2 RV, BB
Schneider: -5 RV, F7
Total Offensive RV: 0
Total Defensive RV: +5
Total RV: +5
Why is the total RV 5 (1/2 a run) if they actually scored 1 run? Because we are recording marginal runs above the average. Recall that the ERV for 0 on, 0 out -- the start of the inning -- is 5 or 0.5 runs. That means the average team scores approximately 0.5 runs each inning, or 4.5 per game. So when they actually score 1 run, they are scoring 0.5 above the average, or 5 RVs. Note that the ERV scoring shows that the run scored here was half due to the Expos batters and half due to the Reds fielders. Also note that Jimenez's error is the largest RV -- scoring this way shows how errors really kill, because the turn outs into bases and/or runs.
It seems that each inning should result in a Total RV that is a multiple of 5. A 1-2-3 inning is a -5 (-2, -2, -1). One run scored should be +5, two runs +15, three runs +25, etc. I didn't expect things to work out like that, i.e. it be a zero-sum thing, but I guess it makes sense, but I need to think more about that.
As for the pitcher, I usually assign them the negative of the Offensive RV number, here it was 0, so they don't suffer the errors of their fielders. This is usually a multiple of 5, except where there are errors. In this game, in the Ninth, Rocky Biddle got an 11 RV (runs saved in his case), because there was one error in the inning, yet the Reds did not score (the error gave the Reds 6 RVs). He essentially gets credit for getting four outs in one inning.
I pulled a Word document from this great site and modified it for ERV scoring, but I'm still working on it. If anyone is interested, use the e-mail link to the right and I can send it to you, especially if you are good at form design and can improve it.