Boswell, Guzman And ERV
Here's a test for DM's ERV scoring based on subjective fielding decisions. Boswell writes:
Yesterday, Washington would have trailed 6-1 with average defense. Instead, four fine plays -- three of them by shortstop Cristian Guzman -- kept the deficit at 3-1. After scoring seven runs in the seventh inning on Saturday to blow open a game, Washington erupted for six runs in the seventh yesterday.
(emphasis added). So, DM, did you score those Guzman plays as extraordinary, and how many expected runs did they save?
posted by SuperNoVa @ 10:44 AM
7 comments
7 Comments:
Yuda's right. No one was sure whether that was going to be a liner or a groundball. (Clayton got stuck in no-man's land, at a dead stop)
Once it dropped, he had a tough play to pick it up off a very short hop, and then have the presence and awareness to find the bag -- a tough play that he made look pretty easy and fluid.
Roberto Alomar used to do that about once a year. And, in prior years that was a pretty routine play.
BUT, that is technically against the rules. I can't quote the section, but it's one of those gray-area judgement calls. I've heard of a few cases where they'll just assume the catch -- sort of a retroactive IF Fly rule.
For the pedant in all of us...
Umpires must keep their eyes on fielders who intentionally drop line drives to create double plays. This is a no-no per role 6.05(1)
Umpire Ed Vargo enforced the rule on May 20, 1960 in a game played between the Cardinals and Reds. Stan Musial hit a bases loaded liner to Reds' pitcher Joe Nuxhall who dropped the ball. Vargo signaled "no play." Musial was declared out, but the other Cardinal runners remained on base, protected by the rulebook.
Although this just discusses it in the context of DPs.
Damn... I better think these things through before I post!
I gave Guzman fielding credit for the DP where he kept the runner from third scoring. I concluded that the average fielder would have gotten the DP but let the runner score, so I gave Guzman fielding credit for keeping the runner at third, which has an RV of 0.65. I did not think any of the other plays were worth noting.
So far I've really been impressed with Guzman's fielding, enough so that I keep hoping he gets out of his batting slum so that we can justify keeping him out there in the field.
He's making it hard, it's highlighted by how often he comes up and flops at critical points (batting order change anyone?!), and in another six or seven games it's going to be framed as something other than a slump.
That was an awesome play because of an awesome read. Its easy to get hopped on steriods and have the ability to play ball. You see less and less athletes that have the mentality and talent for it.
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