ERV Boxscore for April 30, 2005

A couple of new features added to the boxscores:

1. The Number in Parentheses in the Final Score. These are the "inflation-adjusted" runs, which are explained below when I talk about the new Win Value column.

2. ERVPA -- ERV Plate Appearances. This new column for batters totals the team Expected Run Value for all of that player's plate appearances. For example, when a batter leads off an inning, the ERV is 0.53, so that PA is worth 0.53. This number tells you the number of runs the team was expected to score in the rest of the inning as the batter came to the plate. The higher the number, the more important the PAs were for that batter, i.e. what the stakes were. A batter who comes up everytime with Bases Loaded should have a very high ERVPA. This can be used to measure the batter's efficiency -- for example, for all of Vinny Castilla's plate appearances, the Nats were expected to score 1.43 runs. Vinny, though, generated 1.47 runs with his bat, which is better than 100 %, which is highly efficient. For comparison purposes, on the season, Vinny's efficiency (which is the best on the club) is about 15%.

3. ERVF -- ERV Faced. This is the pitchers version of ERVPA, it totals the ERV for all of the batters the pitcher faced. Essentially, it is the opposing team's total expected runs while it faced that pitcher. It can be used to measure the pitcher's efficiency, like a batter, but the number itself is meaningful -- the higher it is, the more real chances the pitcher gave the opponents to score. As you can see below, Ohka actually gave the Mets for chance to score than Zambrano -- but the Nats were much more efficient with their bats than the Mets.

4. Win Value -- This column takes the RVs (all of them, Batting, Fielding, Running, Pitching, etc.) and adjusts them for the score and inning of the game, in an effort to reflect how important the run was to the winning/losing of the game. I can't go into detail right now how it is done, but here are the basics: if the game is tied (in any inning) then the WV = the full value of the RV. Likewise where an event ties a game up or takes the lead. In essence, if the state of the game can change, the full RV is awarded. For all other times, the WV equals RV multiplied by a discount factor, which is based on the score differential and the inning. So, if a game is 10-0 in the 8th, the WV will almost always be very close to 0, because those runs (both to increase a lead or decrease it) are essentially meaningless from a win/loss standpoint.

Think of it this way -- runs are the currency with which teams buy wins. Like currency, runs have different values at different times. A solo home run in the first in a 1-0 final is worth a lot more than an grand slam in the ninth of a 10-0 game. WV seeks to adjust the runs' value for inflation, based on how much it will cost to win the game.

So, the numbers in parentheses in the final score? That's the final score adjusted to Win Value. You can use that difference, in combination with the individual player's WVs, to more accurately assess the player's responsible for the win or loss, and I plan to use that data for assigning ERV win and loss from here on out. (Thanks to Dexys for that idea).

Given the hour, I'm certain this could be more clearly stated, and some of this stuff I just thought of today, so caveat emptor for now. I will try to revise, and would gladly answer questions.


Game Number: 24 , April 30, 2005

Final Score:
New York 3 (1.13)
Washington 5 (2.91)

ERV Win: Ohka
ERV Loss: Zambrano & Reyes

New York

Batter	Pos	PA	ERVPA	Bat	Field	Run	Total RV	Total WV
ReyesJ	SS	4	2.23	(1.01)	0.00	0.00	(1.01)	(0.80)
MatsuiK	2B	4	2.27	(1.60)	0.00	0.00	(1.60)	(0.59)
BeltranC	CF	4	1.19	(0.19)	0.00	0.00	(0.19)	(0.22)
FloydC	LF	4	1.53	2.08	0.00	0.00	2.08	0.70
PiazzaM	C	4	1.67	(0.37)	0.00	0.00	(0.37)	(0.10)
MientkiewiczD	1B	3	1.30	(1.09)	0.00	0.00	(1.09)	(0.51)
WrightD	3B	3	2.14	(0.30)	0.00	0.00	(0.30)	(0.10)
DiazV	RF	3	2.38	(0.00)	0.00	0.00	(0.00)	0.01
ZambranoV	P	1	0.54	(0.21)	0.00	0.00	(0.21)	(0.13)
ValentE	PH	1	1.55	(0.76)	0.00	0.00	(0.76)	(0.44)
AndersonM	PH	1	0.28	0.26	0.00	0.00	0.26	0.04
Totals		32	17.10	(3.19)	0.00	0.00	(3.19)	(2.14)

Pitcher	BFP	ERVF	RV	WV
ZambranoV	21	9.33	(0.88)	(1.26)
AybarM	12	3.61	(0.94)	(0.24)
RingR	3	1.55	0.53	0.07
Totals	36	14.49	(1.30)	(1.43)

Washington

Batter	Pos	PA	ERVPA	Bat	Field	Run	Total RV	Total WV
WilkersonB	CF	4	2.11	(0.48)	0.00	0.00	(0.48)	(0.31)
JohnsonN	1B	4	1.63	2.09	(0.52)	0.00	1.57	0.48
VidroJ	2B	4	1.72	(1.14)	0.00	0.00	(1.14)	(0.36)
GuillenJ	RF	4	1.11	0.32	0.00	0.00	0.32	0.28
CastillaV	3B	4	1.43	1.47	0.00	0.00	1.47	1.63
ChurchR	LF	4	1.43	0.59	0.00	0.00	0.59	0.20
SchneiderB	C	4	2.08	(0.11)	0.00	0.00	(0.11)	(0.20)
GuzmanC	SS	4	1.97	(0.97)	0.00	0.00	(0.97)	(0.24)
OhkaT	P	3	0.90	(0.38)	(1.43)	0.00	(1.81)	(0.74)
MajewskiG	P	1	0.11	(0.11)	0.00	0.00	(0.11)	(0.02)
Totals		36	14.49	1.30	(1.95)	0.00	(0.66)	0.71

Pitcher	BFP	ERVF	RV	WV
OhkaT	22	12.25	4.61	2.81
MajewskiG	9	4.51	(1.76)	(0.78)
CarrascoH	1	0.33	0.33	0.11
Totals	32	17.10	3.19	2.14