Saturday, April 30, 2005

ERV Boxscore April 29, 2005

Another nice, solid win for the Nats. No panic in this team, they seem to let the opponent score early to lull them into their trap. The pitching matchups are set up well for the Nats -- no Glavine or Pedro this weekend for the Mets. If Zach Day can pitch like he did Monday night versus the Phils, and Patterson continues his commanding performance, a sweep could be had.

Guzman had a share of the ERV win until his error in the ninth; Hernandez would have had the ERV win alone but for his wild pitch and bad bunt.

Game Number: 23 , April 29, 2005
Final Score:
New York 1
Washington 5

Win: Hernandez & Cordero
Loss: Seo, Diaz & Bell

New York

Batter Pos PA Bat Field Run Total RV
ReyesJ SS 5 (0.65) 0.00 0.16 (0.49)
MatsuiH 2B 5 (0.02) 0.00 0.00 (0.02)
BeltranC CF 5 (0.71) 0.00 0.00 (0.71)
PiazzaM C 5 (0.58) 0.00 0.00 (0.58)
FloydC LF 4 0.49 0.00 0.00 0.49
MientkiewiczD 1B 4 (0.91) 0.00 0.00 (0.91)
WrightD 3B 4 0.42 0.63 0.00 1.05
DiazV RF 4 (1.13) 0.00 0.00 (1.13)
SeoJ P 2 (1.07) 0.00 0.00 (1.07)
ValentE PH 1 (0.59) 0.00 0.00 (0.59)
AndersonM PH 1 (0.25) 0.00 0.00 (0.25)
Totals 40 (5.01) 0.63 0.16 (4.21)




Pitcher BFP RV
SeoJ 19 (0.99)
BellH 5 (1.06)
KooD 5 0.86
AybarM 2 0.42
KingR 1 0.11
Totals 32 (0.66)


Washington

Batter Pos PA Bat Field Run Total RV
WilkersonB CF 4 (0.77) 0.00 0.00 (0.77)
JohnsonN 1B 4 (0.91) 0.00 0.00 (0.91)
VidroJ 2B 4 (0.47) 0.00 0.00 (0.47)
GuillenJ RF 4 0.72 0.00 0.00 0.72
SledgeT LF 4 (0.24) 0.00 0.74 0.50
CastillaV 3B 3 0.72 0.00 0.00 0.72
SchneiderB C 3 0.56 0.00 0.00 0.56
GuzmanC SS 3 0.85 (0.59) 0.00 0.25
HernandezL P 3 0.20 (0.49) 0.00 (0.28)
Totals 32 0.66 (1.08) 0.74 0.32



Pitcher BFP RV
HernandezL 35 3.88
AyalaL 3 (0.09)
CorderoC 2 1.21
Totals 40 5.01

4 Comments:

At 10:01 AM, Blogger boz said...

Great game last night. I wasn't scoring the game, so I didn't realize until this morning that Hernandez was at 118 pitches going into the eighth. It turned out to be a great decision to keep him in.

I just started following your blog, and I think I'm finally getting the ERV. I guess for this game, the win definitely goes to Hernandez and maybe Cordero (second highest RV, over 25% of the victory margin).

Seo gets a loss for his combined pitching and batting. Do Diaz and Bell get "assists" in that loss? The other question, can you explain why Seo's (.99) RV doesn't seem to reflect giving up 3 solo homers?

 
At 11:52 AM, Blogger dexys_midnight said...

well, I didn't get a chance to see the game at all last night, but I think I can get you almost 100% of the way to Seo's (0.99) without having seen a pitch.

Remember, ERV is not a pure value of what you did, but rather what you did relative to what was expected. So giving up 3 runs doesn't get you a negative 3 ERV. In fact, if you did that over a complete game, there is an excellent chance your ERV would be positive. It is expected that a pitcher will give up .54 runs in an inning (the other side of the coin that says that the batters will score .54 runs per inning). Therefore, if you pitch 5 innings, you are expected to give up about 2.7 runs. By giving up 3, Seo was only .3 worse than the norm. Now, why wasn't Seo at just -.3 then? Well, from the ERV boxscore, I can see that Wright's fielding saved over .6 of ERV. DM can correct me if I am wrong, but I'm guessing that occurred while Seo was pitching--while Wright saved the "Mets" .63, Seo still was responsible for that .63, so now you get to -.93 for Seo. DM can explain the slight discrepency between that and -.99, whether there was a fielding or running play or what that accounts for the difference.
It's always helpful to keep in mind that this is a zero sum way of looking at things, or like an accounting ledger.

 
At 1:48 PM, Blogger boz said...

Thanks for the answer. Your blog is the first time I've heard of the system and I'm still trying to wrap my head around it.

 
At 5:06 PM, Blogger DM said...

Seo basically pitched a no-hitter except for the 3 homers (he gave up one walk, and I ruled Guzman's ground ball, which Wright robbed, a hit, and gave the fielding credit to Wright), for five innings, so his ERV should be pretty good. The rule of thumb for pitchers is every inning pitched is a plus 0.5, then you subtract the runs given up. So Seo starts with about 2.5 (5 innings x .5 runs per inning), then subtract 3 for the runs, the subtract the extra hit, and you get around minus 1.0.

 

Post a Comment

<< Home