ERV Boxscore for July 26, at Atlanta

Baseball sucks. It gives you all this information, all these clues, making you think you can understand why teams win or why they lose. And then you get a game like this. Yogi had it right, in baseball, nobody knows nothin'.

I had survived this miserable July reasonably well, on the theory that our lineup was so pathetically bad that to expect to win those games was foolhardy. No expectations. Tonight was different. Solid lineup, ace pitcher, ace closer, ace setup man -- and we blow another lead and lose like that. Going into the bottom of the ninth, I thought we had turned the corner, but instead we hit a brick wall.

This was game 100. We can't afford to lose this way anymore.

ERV Boxscore for July 24, vs. Houston

ERV Boxscores for July 22 & 23, vs. Houston

The Guzman Virus

So I was reading CBS Sportsline's recap of Sunday's game, and I could not finish it, because this sentence left me too stunned to continue:

The Nationals are hitting .170 since the All-Star break.

Good Lord! It's contagious!!!

Friday Morning Figures

Through games of July 21

ERV Boxscore for July 21, vs. Houston

This bad luck is suffocating. Plenty of men on base to score, but really bad timing, like Baerga getting hit, only to bring up Loaiza; all the double plays; Wilson's too little, too late HR. Loaiza pitched well, but Oswalt was better. This one was not as frustrating as last night or Monday, but they all count the same.

ERV Win: Oswalt
ERV Loss: Baerga

3 Most Valuable Plays
(1) Baerga's Error in the 5th (-1.85)
(2) Lamb's HR in the 6th (1.65)
(3) Oswalt's single in the 6th (1.10)

Heraclitus Would Have Loved This

My favorite pre-Socratic philosopher is Heraclitus, for two reasons: (1) he stirred things up; and (2) he was right. He went after the great Greek poets, Homer and Hesiod, who were always lamenting war and longing for peace. To this, Heraclitus said "SAVE IT!!!" Conflict is the stuff of life, he said. Look at this stick and string, he explained. Separate and "at peace", they are boring, inert. Now, tie the string to one end of the stick and bend the stick so you can tie the other, and you got something -- a bow. You can make music with it. You can fire an arrow into you enemy's butt with it. In conflict, these things are much more interesting, and actually create a harmony and unity that is much more useful. Of all the things I learned in college, this last bit is the one that has stayed with me and been proven true most often.

So it is with the Nats. We now have plenty of conflict. June was disquieting because the victories were too peaceful -- we got no information about what was really going on with this team. Now, in July, we've got Livan threatening a shutdown, Jose complaining about his teammates backing him up and about their work habits, Ryan Church getting dissed by his manager, and a 6-10 record against mediocre opponents. How the team reacts to this time will tell us much more about our future this season than the 20 wins in June. Houston comes to town having score 11, 6, 9, & 8 runs in the past 3 days. We haven't had a offensive streak like that in over 3 months. And next week we go to Atlanta. If we are not careful, we could be 5 games out of first by next Friday.

This conflict stuff is good. Let's find out what this team is really all about.

ERV Boxscores for July 18, 19 & 20, vs. Colorado

ERV Boxscores for July 16 & 17, at Milwaukee

Bad Omens

I was traveling again yesterday, sitting in LaGuardia at game time. I had wireless internet, so I fired up MLB.tv, only to find I was blacked out. I missed the big Nats banner in the US Airways terminal, though. I turn to Gameday, and I see the following words "Cristian Guzman bunts ground out into double play." Then, Joey Eischen is pitching in the 3rd inning. But we are ahead 2-1, and I board the plane ...

... I get to my car at National and turn on Charlie & Dave: "... and he just couldn't get it down. He's really not doing anything right. So, one out and Brian Schneider still on first base ..." No indication of the score, but the tone of C&D's voice is somber, so I'm convinced we are losing. The inning ends, and, much to my surprise, it's tied 4-4. But I think C&D knew what we all knew. I was sitting at an Exxon station when the ball went through Vinny's legs, and when I get home, another omen, for later in the week: Astros 11, Pirates 1 ...

... Plus, I am in an ERV Boxscore slump, falling 2 1/2 games behind. But I can make that up tonight or tomorrow pretty easily. The Nats, on the other hand, might have a steeper climb ...

Have you seen me?

**** ATTENTION!!! NATS BLOG AMBER ALERT !!! *****

Psuedonym: SuperNoVa
Last Post: July 1, 2005
Last Seen With: Black Betsy

SuperNoVa is a Nats Blogger who had been in an abusive relationship with his original team, the White Sox. His co-bloggers are concerned that the abuser has lured him back with trinkets like a good record at the All-Star Break and other shiny but meaningless items. The abuser apparently has powerful influence over SuperNoVa, and direct efforts to alert him to his plight only make him defensive and are counterproductive. More creative intervention is needed, such as the return of Nick Johnson.

If you have any information about the whereabouts of this Nats Blogger, please contact Nats Blog.

Patterson's Endurance

A few days ago in a game chat, Dexys observed that John Patterson seems to lose a lo after his 100th pitch. We don't chart pitches here at Nats Blog (we're obsessive, not insane), but we can calculate a pitcher's average RV per batter faced over different innings. Here's a chart of Patterson RV per batter for each of the innings in which he's pitched:


It definitely seems he can only go 6 innings, which is about 100 pitches, given that Patterson seems to throw a lot of pitches. The first and third innings are also interesting.

ERV Boxscore for July 15, at Milwaukee

A walk-off balk. No, I have never seen that happen before. Yes, it was an outrageously bad call, probably the worst of the year. No, oddly enough, I was not furious -- I had expected us to lose from the moment of Carlos Lee's homerun. My rational side keeps saying that we will see the bad side of luck in these one-run games in the second half. But do we have to see them all at once?

ERV Win: Nobody (literally 4 people would qualify by my method, Magruder, Turnbow, Santana and Sheets, but I'm too disgusted to give it out)
ERV Loss: Stanton and Ayala

ERV Boxscore for July 14, at Milwaukee

ERV Boxscore for July 12, the All-Star Game

ERV Win: Ortiz & Tejada
ERV Loss: Oswalt, Hernandez & Ramirez

3 Most Valuable Plays:
(1) Ortiz's single in the 3rd (1.63)
(2) Manny Ramirez's GIDP in the 1st (-1.47)
(3) Tejada's HR in the 2nd (1.33)

Our Secret Weapon

By now it is clear that RFK is a pitcher's park, which suits the light-hitting Nats quite well. The question as to why it dulls offense, particularly opposing batters, remains open: is it the spacious dimensions? Ample foul ground? Wind patterns in the outfield? Tom Boswell's column today reveals that the secret lies in a smelly Chevy Caprice with intermittent A/C and broken seat belts:

Veteran Arizona outfielder Luis Gonzalez noticed in the Opening Day series that everything about the RFK experience was subtly hostile or alien. ... "None of the cabbies know where RFK is. Everybody's cab fare was different, like $10 or $12 different."

So, the next time you find yourself arguing with a cabbie over whether you crossed H Street, or why he decided to pick up a passenger going in the opposite direction, or when exactly "rush hour" started, remember: your taking one for the team!

More ERV Stats

Below are some more ERV stats that I have been tracking. They are essentially all "rate stats" -- RV and WV per "game" or "inning" for each Nats Player and Pitcher (I've separate pitchers and batters here, and ignored pitchers hitting in these charts). An explanation for the columns is at the bottom of this post:

Batters

PA = Plate Appearances (note that in rare cases this may be off from the actual totals for players who appeared only as pinch runners).

G = Games Equivalent (PA divided by 4.1, that is why Wilkerson has more games that we've actually played.

RV and WV columns = This is the RV and WV each player produces or squanders per games (games equivalent, actually). In other words, RV and WV divided by G.

ERVTot. = ERVTot is the total Expected Run Value for the team for all PAs for that batter. For example, if a batter leads off an inning, he gets 0.53 (the ERV at that point for the team) added to his ERVTot. If he comes up with Bases Loaded, he gets 2.25 added to his ERVTot. It is a measure of the scoring situations the player has faced.

ROI = Return on Investment. This is the players total Batting RV for the season (see Friday Morning Figures for that) divided by his ERVTot. I view this as how well the player has invested the run currency he was given in his at bats. Like any investment, a player can lose money. Note that the ERVTot is a team-based figure, as it reflects the runs the team is expected to score, not just that player. So you would not expect the player to have anything close to 100% here, though that can happen in an individual game (the ERV Boxscores show ERVTot under the column ERVPA). Nick Johnson is our best investor, earning a 17% return on the Nats money. Wil Cordero is the worst, losing over 40% of our expected runs in his at bats.

ERV/PA = This is simply ERVTot divided by PA. It is a measure of the "leverage" each batter faces on average. As you would expect, Wilkerson's is pretty low given that he leads off, and pinch-hitters are pretty high, given that they usually bat with men on base. For comparison, the ERV table I'm using says the leadoff hitter in every inning comes to the plate with an ERV of 0.53.

Pitchers

BFP = Batters faced by the pitcher

IP = Equivalent innings pitched, based on 4.1 batters per inning (37 BFP divided by 9).

RV & WV = Pitching and Fielding RV and WV per inning.

ERVF = The pitcher's version of ERVTot -- the total ERV faced by opposing batters faced by that pitcher. Note that unlike the batters, the pitcher has some control over this figure, in that if he is mowing them down, his ERVF is pretty low because he's not giving the opponents scoring opportunities.

ROI = Return on Investment, total Pitching RV divided by ERVF. Similar to the batters, although the because the pitcher can control the denominator somewhat, those who pitch to the score will have a relatively low number here, like Livan Hernandez. I'm still puzzling over what this number actually means, and whether there is a better way to calculate this.

ERV/BFP = The average ERV faced by the pitcher for each batter, a measure of the leverage the pitcher faces. Relievers who come in in the middle of innings generally have the higher number here.

Friday Morning Figures at the Break

ERV Boxscores for July 9 & 10, at Philadelphia

I've posted these boxscores together because these two games, for our purposes, were essentially the same. We had the manpower to win a 7-inning game this weekend, not a 9-inning game, let alone an extra inning game. These games are a good test for us fans -- if you thought, in the late stages, that we had any chance of winning either of these contests, you are truly loyal beyond rationality, and I envy you. I stopped watching at the start of extra innings in both, convinced of our demise.

If we had managed to win these games, then it would be certain that there is a 2005 Nationals team portrait in the bowels of RFK slowly turning into the horrifying 1962 Mets, win by win.

But, hey, the Braves and Marlins lost 2 too, the Mets lost one (but they don't have it this year), and the Phils should be seriously worried that they didn't beat us 8-0 and 10-4. The break comes at the perfect time, and we get Milwaukee to feast on this Thursday. And we'd better feast!



ERV Win: Martinez & Rollins
ERV Loss: W. Cordero, Bennett & Majewski

3 Most Valuable Plays:
(1) Martinez Single in the 12th (6.04)
(2) Pratt's Single in the 12th (4.06)
(3) Utley's GIDP in the 11th (-3.17)



ERV Win: Utley & Bell
ERV Loss: Carrasco

3 Most Valuable Plays:
(1) Utley's Double in the 9th (5.32)
(2) Bell's Sac Fly in the 9th (4.95)
(3) Abreu's single in the 9th (2.33)

The Bunt Thing Again

Today, in the top of the eighth, scored tied 0-0, Gary Bennett leads off with a walk. The pitcher John Patterson comes to the plate, after pitching 7 innings. Frank leaves him in to bunt, so I thought he was trying to save the bullpen, like he did Tuesday night with Loaiza. Patterson failed to get the bunt down, and the inning fizzled after that.

Much to my surprise, Hector Carrasco, not John Patterson, comes out to pitch the bottom of the eighth. Now, the objection here is obvious -- why didn't Frank pinch hit for Patterson in the top of the inning, if he wasn't going to pitch anymore? He had Marlon Byrd, Tony Blanco, Wil Cordero and Brian Schneider on the bench, IIRC. The objection is a good one, but the fact that he didn't pinch hit tells us something -- something we probably already knew but is now confirmed.

No matter who was going to hit in that at bat, be it Patterson, Byrd, or Blanco, he was going to be ordered to bunt. Frank must have thought that he didn't want to waste a pinch hitter just to bunt, which makes sense, sort of. (There is an objection to this thinking in that you want somebody who can actually bunt at the plate, but that's not what I want to focus on).

But the important thing that this event confirms is this: Frank thinks a successful bunt in that situation improves your chance of scoring that runner on first. It does not. There is no empirical evidence to prove that conclusion. (See here, here and here for previous posts on that point). What a successful bunt does is preserve the same chance of scoring for a new batter -- the chance of scoring a runner from first with none out is the same as scoring a runner from second with one out, but in the latter situation you probably have a better hitter at the plate, especially if the pitcher bunts. But Frank can have a better hitter at the plate by simply pinch-hitting, without giving up the out, and the chance of a messed up bunt.

What about the double play, you might ask? First, the analyses in the posts above generally take that into consideration and reveal that it is an unfounded concern so long as the hitter does not have an extraordinary propensity for GIDP. Also, the chance that the batter gets a double or triple or homer counterbalance that. But if you are worried about that, put in a guy who can run, like Marlon Byrd, which alleviates that concern. The point is, if you can have a decent hitter up there, let him swing away.

I know this is an old saw, and protest is futile. But it will come back to haunt us, probably in September at a crucial moment.

And besides, even if Frank brought in Byrd, he would have called for a hit and run.

[UPDATE: Occam's Razor says the best explanation is often the simplest. That may be the case here: Frank's decision to bat Patterson was just incompetence of a simpler nature. Apparently Frank wanted Spivey to pinch hit, but no one told him that Junior had broke his hand hitting off a tee in BP, so then he wanted Livan to pinch hit, but Livan wasn't wearing his jersey (he was comparing pecs and tats with Wil Cordero, I guess), so he had to let Patterson bat. The lesson from this additional information: we ALL need the All-star break!]

ERV Boxscore for July 8, at Philadelphia

Many people use the phrase "Pyrrhic victory" to simply mean an "empty" victory, or one that is not a victory at all. The historic context to the phrase gives a more nuanced definition. The problem for Pyrrhus, a Greek king in 280 BC or so, was that his generals expended so many forces in one battle with the Romans he knew they had nothing left to actually win the war.

Why this Sen. Robert Byrd-like filibuster? Because tonight's win was a true Pyrrhic victory. We expended so much of the bullpen, I'm not sure we can expect to win another before the break, unless Patterson and Loaiza go old school on us and throw 9 innings each. As Pyyrhus would say, "Another such victory over the [Phillies] and we are undone."

ERV Boxscore for July 7, vs. New York

Technical Difficulties ... Insert M*A*S*H Episode Here

The storm knocked out my power last night, so I could not put together a boxscore or the Friday Morning Figures. I will have them up tonight, and some additional statistics along the lines of Dexys' recent post. Stay Tuned!

ERV Boxscore for July 6, vs. New York

ERV Boxscore for July 5, vs. New York

This team has the nice tendency to rise to the occasion. After a lackadaisical loss yesterday, they come back very strong against one the best pitchers of our generation. Dexys and I were at the game, and the frustration on the faces of the Mets and their fans was enjoyable to watch.

Notes:

-- Jose Vidro is still hurting. He pulled into second on his double VERY gingerly, and made a good show of it after sliding into home, just like a wide receiver who gets up quickly after a good hit. But it is nice to have him back in the lineup.

-- Speaking of the lineup, Carlos Baerga fourth?

ERV Win: Loaiza
ERV Loss: Reyes

Most Valuable Plays:

(1) Reyes groundout in the Ninth (-3.10)
(2) Wright's GIDP in the 7th (-1.84)
(3) Daubach's Popout in the 9th (-1.47)

A note about these plays: Dexys and I were trying to figure out which play would be the most valuable, and neither of us picked Reyes. But it makes sense -- he came up with runners on second and third and 1 out, down by 2. The critical runner is the one on second, and while Reyes' groundout scored a run and moved that runner over, getting him to third with 2 outs didn't do the Mets much good.

ERV Boxscore for July 4, vs. New York

Look, when you're inserting Jamey Carroll in the 2 slot to pick up the offense, it's a pretty bad sign. And when the guy who was hitting there (or not hitting, as the case may be) isn't benched, just moved down to the 7 slot where he gets one fewer chance to strikeout, it's time to despair. When we all looked at this lineup last Tuesday night, winning 6 straight seemed delusional. As with much this season, our imaginations can become reality.

Speaking of reality, this series is important, and a split is essential, otherwise we give the Mets hope that they can get back in the race, and we have enough competitors in the East.

ERV Win: Hernandez & Offerman
ERV Loss: Kim, Wilkerson & Bennett

Most Valuable Plays:

(1) Offerman's Single in the 9th (3.29)
(2) Cameron's Single in the 7th (2.18)
(3) Wright's Double in the 7th (1.78)

The Political Philosophy of Brendan Donnelly

Our favorite cheater, Brendan Donnelly, was quoted in Saturday's Washington Post (in the AL Notes section) as complaining about law and order in the MLB. Brendan appealed his 10 game suspension for the pine tar incident. He received a 2 game reduction in that sentence, but that wasn't good enough. ''If this were a court of law," he said, "I would be free on a technicality. Instead, this is a dictatorship, where one man rules."

Yes, Brendan, you've touched upon a hallmark of totalitarianism -- making sure lawbreakers don't get off on technicalities. That is, when the secret police happen to be in the mood for a show trial.

But I'm sure he had the Angels bloggers nodding in approval with that one.

Game Chart for July 3 against the Cubs

I'm still not sure exactly what these things show, but here's the chart for yesterday's game against the Cubs. Basically, the farther above the line, the more chance we had of winning the game at that point, and the farther below, the more chance the Cubs had. Note that the dip in the 7th was Burnitz's long drive to center that Wilk caught against the wall -- the line goes down assuming a double, then goes back up when Wilk catches the ball.

We see a tight game which we were slowly building to a victory, then everything changes and we get O.J. Simpson's polygraph.

Taking Stock

This post will blatantly violate the ubiquitous warning that "past performance is no indication of future results." The Nats are an unbelievable 50-31 at the 81-game midway point. If they play in the second half like they played in the first, they will end up 100-62. But here are some other past performances that might indicate the Nats future:

If they play like they played at home (29-10), they will end up 110-52.
If they play like they played on the road (21-21), they will end up 91-72.
If they play like they played in June (20-6), they will end up 112-50.
If they play like they played in May (14-14), they will end up 91-72.
If they play like they played in April(13-11), they will end up 94-68.
If they play like they played versus the NL East (16-13), they will end up 95-67.
If they play like they played versus the NL Central (14-8), they will end up 102-60.
If they play like they played versus the NL West (8-4), they will end up 104-58.
If they play like they played versus the AL (12-6), they will end up 104-58.
If they play like they played with Vidro (14-12), they will end up 94-68.
If they play like they played without Vidro (36-19), they will end up 103-59.
If they play like they played on Sundays (9-4), they will end up 106-56.
If they play like they played last year in the 2nd half (39-42), they will end up 89-73.

But just to keep us honest,
If they play like they played against the Reds, they will end up 50-112.

Friday Morning Figures for Halfway Point

Through 81 Games:

ERV Boxscores for July 1, 2 & 3, at Chicago

ERV Boxscores for June 28, 29 & 30, vs. Pittsburgh

Sorry for the "Baseball Digest"-like frequency of the boxscores lately. We'll be back up to date by the end of the night. Here's the Pittsburgh series:

Misleading Fact of the Day!

Right now on the Nats' clubhouse at ESPN, there is a blurb that reads:

The Nationals are 10-5 since acquiring 2B Junior Spivey from Milwaukee on June 10 for pitcher Tomo Ohka. 'Everyone here wants to win and we have one goal in mind, and that's to get to the playoffs,' said Spivey, who has two game-winning RBI for the Nationals.

Mind you, that 10-5 record is a dropoff from the Nats' previous 15 games, in which they went 13-2. The Nats are three games worse with Spivey on the team!

Not to say that I think the Nats are actually worse with Spivey, but my intelligence was so insulted by that particular factoid that I had to share.

/rant
[Geek Speak for "end of rant" You see, in HTML, you have "tags" for text, like "b" for bold. You "close" the "tag" by putting a slash in front of it, like "/b" to end the bold text. Thus, by saying "/rant", I am "closing" my "rant" "tag." It's very funny, believe me. There are people all over the Internet laughing hysterically at my cleverness.]

[Worst. Bracketed Paragraph. Ever.]