Friday Morning Figures, May 13
Here's the latest total RV and WV for the Nats, through May 12.
-- The WV figures ("Win Value") are based on the new system I mentioned here (someday I will have time to explain it in detail). The bottom line is that Win Value translates every run into a "go-ahead run" situation, so that 1.0 WV = the average "go-ahead" run (at any point in the game, for either the home or visiting team). So, reading the chart below, Cristian Guzman's fielding has cost the Nats over 6 go-ahead runs this season.
-- Note that there is a subjective element to all of this, in that I make judgments about whether fielders should have made plays, runners should have taken the extra base, etc. Whenever possible I solicit others' views on those plays to check if my judgment was right. Ideally we would have a large group of people make such judgments and we could average them to get the most accurate value. These situations are relatively rare, but that judgment does affect the running and fielding RVs particularly.
-- One tentative conclusion I have come to from doing all of this (which may be obvious to many, I know) is that fielding and running are a lot like things in life: there is little upside and lots of downside, in that you are "productive" in them by avoiding a screw-up, rather than affirmatively adding value. Hence most of the RVs for these two are going to be negative, probably.
(Click on chart for larger image)