Friday, May 06, 2005

Once in a Lifetime

Earlier this week, the Reds went out in the top of the ninth to put the Cards away, holding a 9-3 lead. They lost the game. According to a model created by BP's Nate Silver, which puts a percentage on the chances for a team to win based on the score and inning and the standard distribution of runs from the 2003 MLB season (see here for explanation -- subscription required), the chance of that happening was 0.27 percent. In other words, if they played that inning over again 999 times, you would probably only see that happen again once.

I can't imagine what it felt like to be a Red coming in to bat for the bottom of the ninth.


At 3:38 PM, Blogger Chris Needham said...

I can't remember where I found it... I think a link off of, but that was only the third (?) time that a team's come from that far behind.

If you watch the inning, the Cardinals had about 7 outs there, but the Reds were only charged with one error.

Everything that could go wrong DID go wrong.


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