Tuesday, May 10, 2005

ERV Boxscore for May 9, at Arizona

This team can "answer"! From Guillen's homer in game 2 of the season to Saturday's touchdown after the Grand Slam to last night's Carroll to Johnson give and go, don't go messin' with this team's lead.

But the casualty lists keep getting longer -- word is that Guzman may be out for a week. Three weeks ago you could say "blessing in disguise", but I doubt Carroll can play 2B and SS at the same time. It feels like we are flying in a plane really fast and parts keep flying off, and the crew is busy in the back with some duck tape and string.

Note: Take a look at Ryan Church's line. ERVPA is a sum of the runs the average team scores in the situations in which Church came to the plate. In Church's three appearances, the average team scores 0.28 runs, 0.11 runs, and 0.11 runs. What did he produce from these meager morsels? 1.49 runs! His Return on Investment is over 300%! I'm pretty sure this is the highest of the year. By comparison, the highest for the year for the team is betwen 15 and 18 %. Ryan Church needs to play more!

ERV Win: Johnson
ERV Loss: Clayton

Click on boxscore for larger image

Traditional Boxscore for this game


At 11:17 AM, Blogger dexys_midnight said...

Yeah, it is true that this injury list is getting too long. Now, if Carroll can play SS and Vidro gets back relatively soon, that might not be bad. But we are too thin to keep these injuries up.

Agreed that it was another great win for the Nats, making them 8-2 against the NL West.

Is anyone getting concerned with just how long Frank is letting Livan stay in games? Hard to remember the last time Livan went fewer than 120 pitches, which is an EXCESSIVE amount. That has always been one of the biggest knocks against "old-time" managers like Frank, Dusty and Felipe.. they destroy pitchers' arms through overworking. And if leaving him in at close to over 100 pitches starting the 7th with a shutout was questionable, what was leaving him in at well over 100 pitches when he had already given up two runs and was in trouble again?

At 12:15 PM, Blogger Brian said...

I wouldn't necessarily worry so much about Livan's workload. He has continually been among the league leaders in IP and pitches. He may be one of those throwback guys who can throw and throw an throw.
Since 2000 (IP/# pitches)
2000 240/3808
2001 226.2/3705
2002 216/3476
2003 233.1/3584
2004 255/3925

At 2:50 PM, Blogger Chris Needham said...

I used to worry about Livan. Then, I started watching him pitch.

Yeah, he cranks a ton of pitchers up there, but he does the ol' Christy Mathewson (et al) trick of not pitching very hard on every pitch.

He doesn't seem to be going balls to the wall on every pitch, until he gets in a jam.

It seems like he's happy to let luck be on his side, until he has to make something and work hard.

So his 130 pitches might just be the equal of 110 for an ordinary pitcher?

Just a thought...

At 3:53 PM, Blogger DM said...

I agree with Chris. Livan is old enough to know how to throw 130 pitches in a game. I would worry if he were a rookie pitcher.

That said, I was suprised Frank left him so long last night. I thought it was clear he had lost it. What is clear that Livan is one of the guy's Frank trusts.

At 5:07 PM, Blogger tmk67 said...

The bullpen was worked hard on both Saturday and Sunday at San Francisco, so if ever there was a time to let Livan stretch out to 123 pitches, this was the time.

I agree with Chris -- Livan can control when he needs to pitch hard, which gives him a rubber arm. He has been doing it his entire career. Last year Livan threw more than 110 pitches in 23 of his 35 starts. And last May he had an amazing four-start string of 116, 112, 128 and 124 pitches. And in four consecutive starts in Aug-Sept, he threw 122, 120, 143, and 131 pitches!

I read once that this is a characteristic of pitchers trained in Cuba, who by the nature of the program are asked to throw frequently and many times on consecutive games. Regardless of where he learned this skill, it is tremendously valuable on a day like yesterday.

At 9:19 PM, Blogger Basil said...

Put me in the "let Livan keep throwing" camp. Besides, if "PAP" were any guide, Livan would have lost a limb on like August 21, 1998.


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