Wednesday, May 04, 2005

Minor Thoughts by SuperNoVa

Like I do for my White Sox blog, I thought I would put together a list of the Nats' minor leaguers who are showing patience at the plate. We at Nats Blog do not disguise our affinity for the Moneyball philosophy for building winning baseball organizations. Heck, ERV is based on the basic value of additional bases vs. additional outs - a very OBP-based calculation. I personally find a minor leaguer's walk rates particularly instructive in terms of their potential for contributing to the success (and ERV) of the big club.

My rough benchmark for a good walk rate is 1 walk per 10 at bats. It's probably true that 1 per 10 plate appearance is better, but since the minor league numbers I access do not have PA readily available, AB will do. Without further ado, here's your HTML table:

Team Name AB BB BB/AB
New Orleans (AAA) T Bowers 85 9 0.11
New Orleans (AAA) R Short 68 9 0.13
New Orleans (AAA) L Broadway 57 7 0.12
New Orleans (AAA) D Dement 33 4 0.12
Harrisburg (AA) E Gonzalez 84 9 0.11
Harrisburg (AA) M Nieves 77 18 0.23
Harrisburg (AA) R Lane 87 13 0.15
Harrisburg (AA) C Kuzmic 81 13 0.16
Harrisburg (AA) C Guerrero 71 7 0.10
Harrisburg (AA) S Norris 83 9 0.11
Potomac (A+) V Rooi 4 1 0.25
Potomac (A+) J Whitesell 84 10 0.12
Potomac (A+) J Emmerick 32 6 0.19
Potomac (A+) J Rodriguez 58 6 0.10
Potomac (A+) K Casto 91 14 0.15
Savannah (A-) M Lowrance 26 3 0.12
Savannah (A-) E Baez 90 12 0.13
Savannah (A-) O Castro 87 14 0.16
Savannah (A-) L Montz 75 9 0.12
Savannah (A-) R Bernadina 74 27 0.36
Savannah (A-) S Mortimer 69 13 0.19
Savannah (A-) J Contreras 37 5 0.14

That's actually not too bad a list. It looks like the majority of Nats minor league regulars (or, in the case of Savannah, Gnats) are walking at a decent pace.

I've never heard of Rogearvin Bernadina in my life, but the guy can sure take a walk, can't he. I googled him, and he apparently is a centerfielder with raw tools. Here are a couple of clips from a Baseball America chat on Expos Nats prospects:

Q: Mike from Orrville asks:Rogearvin Bernadina, could he be as good as Vlad?

A: Michael Levesque: Bernadina has the potential to be a five tool player but at this point is not in Vlad's class. Then again, not many players are. [ed: what an absolutely dreadful answer]

Q: Scott from Elizabethtown PA asks:Rogearvin Bernadina looks pretty raw right now. Are there other guys in the farm system who have a high potential but are still raw?

A: Michael Levesque: Outfielders Antonio Sucre and Alberto Guzman have high upsides. The 19-year-old Guzman who played in the DSL this year was signed out of the Dominican this summer by Expos director of Latin American Development Ismael Cruz. Armed with five tool potential, he has been compared to a young Bernie Williams.

The Sand Gnats' roster says that Rogearvin is just 20 years old and a lefty/lefty. At 6'0" 175, he'll probably pack on a few pounds as he ages. He's from Curacao! All that exposure to the tropical sun would make you want to take your time at the plate, too. The walking is nothing new for Het Groot Bernadina; he walked 60 times last year versus 450 at bats. He's never shown a high average, but, despite his low average, his isolated power - SLG minus AVG - has been decent over the last few years, over .100 in '03 and '04. It's not great that this is his third season in low-A ball, but at 20 years old, he's still about average or a bit younger than average for his league.

Might he be the Curacaon god of walks? Or the Curacaon Tiki of Pitch Counts?


At 4:42 PM, Blogger DM said...

Well, now I have to ask one of my favorite baseball trivia questions:

Name 2 (that's right, two) major leaguers from the Netherlands Antilles.


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