Wednesday, May 04, 2005

ERV Boxscore for May 3 -- New and Improved! 50% Fewer Carbs!

Has this team gone beyond the "lovable losers with low expectations" stage? In other words, is my frustration with last night justified? Right now, I would say yes to both questions. We lost a chance to make ground on the playoff pace. Now we must win tonight to avoid losing ground.

Notes:

-- What to do (ERV-wise) about the pileup between second and third after Baerga's single? Some on Yuda's game chat (Nats Blog heartily endorses this event or product) thought Schneider (or Huppert?) should get the full hit for stopping at third. He gets at least -0.16 for not scoring, in my book. But, just like the rules of the road, if you slam into the car in front, you're at fault, no questions asked. For that reason (and not because Dexys paid me off), I blame Guzman.

-- Endy Chavez begins his march to the bottom of the ERV table with a solid -0.81 debut last night.

-- Note that I've added a "Misc Offense" and "Misc Fielding" slot in the boxscores to reflect those plays that don't get credited to any one player (e.g. a balk, I don't credit a baserunner with the base, but I debit the pitcher) I use this internally to check that the RVs all add up.

-- I've changed the format of the boxscores. Feedback is welcome. Ironically, it looks better and is easier to do than HTML tables, so I gain at both ends (it's like a pickoff in ERV!:)).

ERV Win: Valentin & Wunsch
ERV Loss: Guzman & Schneider


(Click on the boxscore to see a larger image)

10 Comments:

At 8:44 AM, Blogger Basil said...

Very elegant look. I like it.

 
At 8:48 AM, Blogger Cameron said...

oooh, pretty

 
At 10:00 AM, Blogger Chris Needham said...

That box also shows some of the squeemishness I have with that stat.

I understand the logic behind it, and it makes sense, but it just seems funny that Guillen's baserunning screw up is only worth .10 runs.

I know an out would've been recorded either way -- it's simply the difference between a man on second or a man on first.

But, it's also hard rectifying the overall probability of something happening with what I saw with my eyes -- the next batter hitting a should've been RBI single.

 
At 10:09 AM, Blogger DM said...

Chris,

I understand your reaction. Sushi used to make me squeamish, but now I really like it :).

Base on ERV, expectations are low with 2 outs, so if you screw up, not much of a negative. There it's a lot of upside for the player, not much downside. In contrast, with 0 outs, expectations are high, so screwups there cost a lot (see 8th inning last night).

There is a depressing element to ERV Scoring. When it gets late in the game and your team is behind with two outs(see last Monday versus the Phils), ERV tells you that you are not likely to win the game, even though it seems like you are moving men around the bases (esp. with Sac Flies). Reality bites.

 
At 10:14 AM, Blogger Yuda said...

I'm wishy-washy on the new format.

The big reason is that I can't change the size of text in that image, and it's a little small (and a little jaggy on some of the text) for my liking. Also, I can't cut/paste.

Also, anybody surfing in on a PDA or cell phone (maybe at a game?) will have a harder time with this format.

Ultimately, I don't think either one of these is a killer, although I'd like to see a couple of changes with the image: make it a little bigger, and make it a .gif or .png so the text is easier to read.

You may not be able to do either one of these (I'm thinking it's a screen capture of a program) so... well, hey, you're the guy doing all the work. ;)

 
At 10:46 AM, Blogger DM said...

Thanks, Yuda, for the suggestions. I'm pretty sure I can switch to GIF. As for making it bigger, have you tried clicking on the image? I've set the archive size to full. I might be able to make it bigger there too.

I could do exactl the same format in pure HTML too, but Blogger insists on putting extra returns in and a bunch of white space, and taking them out is the most time consuming element that I am trying to avoid.

 
At 11:00 AM, Blogger Yuda said...

Yeah, I clicked. But looking back at it, it's not the size that's the problem (although switching to GIF would still help)... what's giving me trouble is that there's nothing to guide my eye across a row.

Either lines between rows, or an iTunes-style alternating background would help a lot. I recognize you might not be able to add this easily, and if not it's pretty good the way it is; I'm just a nit-picker. ;)

 
At 11:11 AM, Blogger DM said...

OK. Alternating rows shouldn't be too hard (famous last words).

And I'm a nitpicker too, who enjoys a challenge.

BTW, for others who are interested, I'm doing this in Excel: highlight the cells you want to make into picture, hold down SHIFT while you click on Edit in the Menu bar (weird, I know) and you get a choice to "Copy Picture", which puts it on the clipboard.

 
At 3:05 PM, Blogger SuperNoVa said...

DM, perhaps we can make the ERV box score spreadsheet available to readers who ask.

 
At 3:09 PM, Blogger DM said...

Sure. All the usual caveats apply as to it being a work in process, undocumented, and byzantine in its structure and layout. But if you want to rummage around in my Excel files, send an e-mail to NatsBlog@gmail.com

 

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