ERV Boxscore for May 1, 2005
For explanation of some of the new stats, see here
On Patterson's fielding RV, some interesting ERVisms. It has three inputs, and the RV for each:
(1) the pickoff of Beltran (+0.85 RV)
(2) letting Cairo score (-0.74 RV)
(3) his balk. (-0.14 RV)
What was most interesting to me was that the first inning pickoff botch was a net positive for the Nats of +0.11. In other words, it was better for the Nats to trade the run for the out at first. That seemed counter-intuitive to me, but as I thought about it, it makes sense. Essentially, history says Cairo was going to score anyway, so keeping him at third only saves a little. It is the same thinking that says with 1st & 3rd and no outs, playing for the DP and conceding the run is a good strategy. Obviously picking Beltran off and keeping Cairo at third would be the best play, and I think when the play first started that is your expectation, so that's why we feel like the play was a screw-up. But in the end, it was not so bad.
Game Number: 25 , May 1, 2005
Final Score:
New York 6 (4.03)
Washington 3 (2.44)
ERV Win: Wright & Floyd
ERV Loss: Ayala & Church
New York
| Batter | Pos | PA | ERVPA | Bat | Field | Run | Total RV | Total WV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ReyesJ | SS | 5 | 3.84 | (0.23) | 0.00 | 0.00 | (0.23) | (0.22) |
| CairoM | 2B | 5 | 4.14 | (0.45) | 0.00 | 0.74 | 0.29 | 0.39 |
| BeltranC | CF | 5 | 2.69 | 1.93 | 0.00 | (0.85) | 1.08 | (0.22) |
| FloydC | LF | 5 | 2.57 | 0.66 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.66 | 0.78 |
| PiazzaM | C | 5 | 2.76 | (0.90) | 0.83 | 0.00 | (0.07) | 0.21 |
| MientkiewiczD | 1B | 4 | 1.86 | (0.83) | 0.43 | 0.00 | (0.39) | (0.30) |
| WrightD | 3B | 4 | 1.04 | 0.88 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.88 | 0.89 |
| ValentE | RF | 4 | 2.11 | (0.12) | 0.00 | 0.00 | (0.12) | (0.07) |
| HeilmanA | P | 2 | 1.07 | (0.96) | 0.00 | 0.00 | (0.96) | (0.93) |
| MatsuiK | PH | 1 | 0.53 | 0.39 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.39 | 0.39 |
| AndersonM | PH | 1 | 0.91 | 0.59 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.59 | 0.59 |
| Totals | 41 | 23.52 | 0.96 | 1.26 | (0.11) | 2.11 | 1.51 |
| Pitcher | BFP | ERVF | RV | WV |
| HeilmanA | 25 | 16.61 | (0.49) | (0.51) |
| HernandezR | 7 | 2.71 | 0.46 | 0.46 |
| LooperB | 5 | 1.81 | 0.53 | 0.10 |
| Totals | 37 | 21.12 | 0.50 | 0.05 |
Washington
| Batter | Pos | PA | ERVPA | Bat | Field | Run | Total RV | Total WV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WilkersonB | CF | 5 | 2.86 | (0.92) | 0.00 | 0.00 | (0.92) | (0.49) |
| JohnsonN | 1B | 4 | 2.47 | 1.52 | 0.00 | (0.24) | 1.29 | 1.28 |
| VidroJ | 2B | 4 | 1.85 | 0.72 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.72 | 0.46 |
| GuillenJ | RF | 4 | 3.10 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| CastillaV | 3B | 4 | 2.21 | (1.17) | 0.00 | 0.00 | (1.17) | (0.83) |
| ChurchR | LF | 4 | 2.10 | (1.08) | 0.00 | 0.00 | (1.08) | (0.87) |
| BennettG | C | 4 | 1.55 | (0.42) | (0.25) | 0.00 | (0.67) | (0.53) |
| GuzmanC | SS | 4 | 1.66 | 1.13 | 0.00 | (0.59) | 0.53 | 0.24 |
| PattersonJ | P | 2 | 2.04 | (0.33) | (0.03) | 0.00 | (0.36) | (0.36) |
| CarrollJ | PH | 1 | 0.91 | (0.21) | 0.00 | 0.00 | (0.21) | (0.21) |
| SledgeT | PH | 1 | 0.37 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 0.03 |
| Totals | 37 | 21.12 | (0.50) | (0.28) | (0.83) | (1.61) | (1.17) |
| Pitcher | BFP | ERVF | RV | WV |
| PattersonJ | 26 | 11.88 | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| EischenJ | 1 | 0.53 | (0.39) | (0.39) |
| CarrascoH | 3 | 2.20 | 1.17 | 1.17 |
| AyalaL | 11 | 8.91 | (1.94) | (1.41) |
| Totals | 41 | 23.52 | (0.96) | (0.36) |
posted by DM @ 11:52 PM
3 comments
3 Comments:
Yuda,
That's exactly what the Nats Blog, Inc. Marketing Department want to hear, in their efforts to creat "mindshare" for ERV Scoring. Those folks are all getting raises today!
DM
Interesting look at the pickoff.
One thing to look at though, is the opportunity cost of all the different possibilities.
What if Patterson hadn't fallen asleep, and they had thrown the runner out at the plate. Even if they allow Beltran to scamper to second, that's a pretty big benefit.
(I don't have the numbers in front of me, but I'd say it's a pretty substantial tradeoff)
Interesting point, Chris. Here are the numbers: Letting Beltran go to second and getting Cairo out at home is a +0.89 for the Nats, only 0.04 more than getting Beltran out and holding Cairo at third. So it looks like the possibilities, in order of benefit to the Nats, are:
(1) Beltran at 2d, Cairo Out = +0.89
(2) Beltran Out, Cairo on third = +0.85
(3) Beltran Out, Cairo Scores = +0.11
(4) Beltran and Cairo hold = 0.00
(5) Beltran on Second, Cairo hold = -0.25
(6) Beltran on First, Cairo scores = -0.33
(7) Beltran on second, Cairo scores = -0.49
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