Sunday, May 01, 2005

ERV Boxscore for May 1, 2005

For explanation of some of the new stats, see here

On Patterson's fielding RV, some interesting ERVisms. It has three inputs, and the RV for each:

(1) the pickoff of Beltran (+0.85 RV)
(2) letting Cairo score (-0.74 RV)
(3) his balk. (-0.14 RV)

What was most interesting to me was that the first inning pickoff botch was a net positive for the Nats of +0.11. In other words, it was better for the Nats to trade the run for the out at first. That seemed counter-intuitive to me, but as I thought about it, it makes sense. Essentially, history says Cairo was going to score anyway, so keeping him at third only saves a little. It is the same thinking that says with 1st & 3rd and no outs, playing for the DP and conceding the run is a good strategy. Obviously picking Beltran off and keeping Cairo at third would be the best play, and I think when the play first started that is your expectation, so that's why we feel like the play was a screw-up. But in the end, it was not so bad.


Game Number: 25 , May 1, 2005
Final Score:
New York 6 (4.03)
Washington 3 (2.44)

ERV Win: Wright & Floyd
ERV Loss: Ayala & Church

New York
Batter Pos PA ERVPA Bat Field Run Total RV Total WV
ReyesJ SS 5 3.84 (0.23) 0.00 0.00 (0.23) (0.22)
CairoM 2B 5 4.14 (0.45) 0.00 0.74 0.29 0.39
BeltranC CF 5 2.69 1.93 0.00 (0.85) 1.08 (0.22)
FloydC LF 5 2.57 0.66 0.00 0.00 0.66 0.78
PiazzaM C 5 2.76 (0.90) 0.83 0.00 (0.07) 0.21
MientkiewiczD 1B 4 1.86 (0.83) 0.43 0.00 (0.39) (0.30)
WrightD 3B 4 1.04 0.88 0.00 0.00 0.88 0.89
ValentE RF 4 2.11 (0.12) 0.00 0.00 (0.12) (0.07)
HeilmanA P 2 1.07 (0.96) 0.00 0.00 (0.96) (0.93)
MatsuiK PH 1 0.53 0.39 0.00 0.00 0.39 0.39
AndersonM PH 1 0.91 0.59 0.00 0.00 0.59 0.59
Totals 41 23.52 0.96 1.26 (0.11) 2.11 1.51


Pitcher BFP ERVF RV WV
HeilmanA 25 16.61 (0.49) (0.51)
HernandezR 7 2.71 0.46 0.46
LooperB 5 1.81 0.53 0.10
Totals 37 21.12 0.50 0.05



Washington

Batter Pos PA ERVPA Bat Field Run Total RV Total WV
WilkersonB CF 5 2.86 (0.92) 0.00 0.00 (0.92) (0.49)
JohnsonN 1B 4 2.47 1.52 0.00 (0.24) 1.29 1.28
VidroJ 2B 4 1.85 0.72 0.00 0.00 0.72 0.46
GuillenJ RF 4 3.10 0.11 0.00 0.00 0.11 0.12
CastillaV 3B 4 2.21 (1.17) 0.00 0.00 (1.17) (0.83)
ChurchR LF 4 2.10 (1.08) 0.00 0.00 (1.08) (0.87)
BennettG C 4 1.55 (0.42) (0.25) 0.00 (0.67) (0.53)
GuzmanC SS 4 1.66 1.13 0.00 (0.59) 0.53 0.24
PattersonJ P 2 2.04 (0.33) (0.03) 0.00 (0.36) (0.36)
CarrollJ PH 1 0.91 (0.21) 0.00 0.00 (0.21) (0.21)
SledgeT PH 1 0.37 0.15 0.00 0.00 0.15 0.03
Totals 37 21.12 (0.50) (0.28) (0.83) (1.61) (1.17)



Pitcher BFP ERVF RV WV
PattersonJ 26 11.88 0.21 0.27
EischenJ 1 0.53 (0.39) (0.39)
CarrascoH 3 2.20 1.17 1.17
AyalaL 11 8.91 (1.94) (1.41)
Totals 41 23.52 (0.96) (0.36)

5 Comments:

At 12:15 PM, Blogger Yuda said...

Interesting on the pickoff. I was actually wondering how that would score last night from my seats.

 
At 1:01 PM, Blogger DM said...

Yuda,

That's exactly what the Nats Blog, Inc. Marketing Department want to hear, in their efforts to creat "mindshare" for ERV Scoring. Those folks are all getting raises today!

DM

 
At 2:27 PM, Blogger Yuda said...

Watch it, though -- if you create too much mindshare, I might just add that to my knowledge of where your seats are and come down to ask you next time. ;)

 
At 2:54 PM, Blogger Chris Needham said...

Interesting look at the pickoff.

One thing to look at though, is the opportunity cost of all the different possibilities.

What if Patterson hadn't fallen asleep, and they had thrown the runner out at the plate. Even if they allow Beltran to scamper to second, that's a pretty big benefit.

(I don't have the numbers in front of me, but I'd say it's a pretty substantial tradeoff)

 
At 3:12 PM, Blogger DM said...

Interesting point, Chris. Here are the numbers: Letting Beltran go to second and getting Cairo out at home is a +0.89 for the Nats, only 0.04 more than getting Beltran out and holding Cairo at third. So it looks like the possibilities, in order of benefit to the Nats, are:

(1) Beltran at 2d, Cairo Out = +0.89
(2) Beltran Out, Cairo on third = +0.85
(3) Beltran Out, Cairo Scores = +0.11
(4) Beltran and Cairo hold = 0.00
(5) Beltran on Second, Cairo hold = -0.25
(6) Beltran on First, Cairo scores = -0.33
(7) Beltran on second, Cairo scores = -0.49

 

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