Postseason Odds

I have to admit, I am an avid follower of Baseball Prospectus's "Postseason Odds" daily report. I like to see the fortunes of my teams wax and wane like stocks in the market. Of course, TradeSports has a similar feature in terms of the collective intelligence of baseball fans, but there's nothing like having the pure "science" of Baseball Prospectus.

Here's what it says today about the NL East:

Team	% Div.
Nats	20.1%
Braves	17.0%
Mets	42.8%
Phillies	22.6%
Marlins	33.9%

How does that strike you? Seems to overrate the Mets' chances to me, while also underrating those of the Braves and Nats. By any stretch of the imagination, it's a close division, but if you told me the Mets were the most likely team to run away with it, I'd say you're crazy. The Phillies or Marlins, perhaps, if they get untracked (like the Phils seem to be doing). But if the Mets run and hide, I'll be surprised.