Tuesday, June 07, 2005

Postseason Odds

I have to admit, I am an avid follower of Baseball Prospectus's "Postseason Odds" daily report. I like to see the fortunes of my teams wax and wane like stocks in the market. Of course, TradeSports has a similar feature in terms of the collective intelligence of baseball fans, but there's nothing like having the pure "science" of Baseball Prospectus.

Here's what it says today about the NL East:

Team% Div.

How does that strike you? Seems to overrate the Mets' chances to me, while also underrating those of the Braves and Nats. By any stretch of the imagination, it's a close division, but if you told me the Mets were the most likely team to run away with it, I'd say you're crazy. The Phillies or Marlins, perhaps, if they get untracked (like the Phils seem to be doing). But if the Mets run and hide, I'll be surprised.


At 12:12 PM, Blogger DM said...

Last I checked, the Nats chances of winning the division are up to 9 percent on Tradesports. They do not have a playoff contract, so it's hard to compare directly with BP's Playoff Odds.

But the crowds agree with you: the Marlins and Braves are still the favorites (around 33% each), with the Mets at 14%


Post a Comment

<< Home