Thursday, June 02, 2005

The Standings of the Crowds

Over at Tradesports, you can buy contracts for the number of wins a particular team in the majors will have this season. The contract pays $1 for each win the team actually earns, so the price of the contract trade is equal to the amount of wins the buyer and seller think the team will have this year.

Here are the standings as predicted by the traders at Tradesports:

Disagree with anything here? Find a rube, make a trade and make some money.

Note: You will see some teams with 163 games. That is due to rounding off the contract price, which goes into the 10ths. E.g. a price of 89.5 would translate to 89.5 wins, 72.5 losses, rounded to 90-73. Note that winning percentage and GB are not affected by the rounding. Thanks to Basil from Nationals Inquirer for noting this.

Another Note: I screwed up the AL West Games Behind -- please ignore. They are actually the games behind the White Sox. I must have thought it was 1983 all over again, eh SuperNoVa? [singing] Where have you gone, Ron Kittle? ...


At 8:39 AM, Blogger Basil said...

Do they explain why some teams have 163 games (but there's no "163rd game scenarios) here? Just a rounding error?

This is fascinating ...

At 9:03 AM, Blogger DM said...

It is probably rounding error from my spreadsheet, e.g. price of 89.5 translates to 89.5 wins and 72.5 losses, or 90-73.


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