Wednesday, June 08, 2005

ERV Boxscore for June 7, vs. Oakland

So I looked up last night's lineups in the thesauras and found the following: anemic, sickly, pallid, feeble, wan. Only Nick Johnson, of course, had a positive ERV night at the plate for the Nats. He has had positive ERV games in 7 of the last 8 and 13 of the last 17. Can we petition the league to allow him to bat every time, using invisible men on base?

Notes:

-- Not surprisingly, the most valuable play is a defensive one, Johnson's pick of Carroll's wan throw on the crucial double play in the 8th. Carroll gets the debit, but Nick picks up the fielding credit, which gives him a 7.00 total WV on the night (Gary Bennett-like numbers).

-- In addition to the victory, we gave A's fans false hope about Barry Zito. Cf. Obermueller, W. (May 2005) & Moehler, B. (April 2005). Dozens of struggling pitchers throughout the league are thinking, "If I can just get to the Nats game ..."

-- Nats Blog's attendance winning streak stretches to 13 games on the year, with the aid of Chris Needham of Capitol Punishment and D of the DC United blog, and Dexys and I had to talk the guards out of tasering them only twice. The four of us stood alone against the simpletons who applauded the Nats's sacrifice bunts.

EDIT: The original box omitted Ayala's appearance. It is now fixed.

ERV Win: Obvious
ERV Loss: Kotsay

3 Most Valuable Plays:
(1) Johnson's pick of Carroll's throw on the DP in the 8th (3.66)
(2) Johnson's 2-run homer (2.91)
(3) Kotsay ground out to end the game (-1.83)


Click on boxscore for larger image

8 Comments:

At 9:39 AM, Blogger Chris Needham said...

How'd you score the NJ play?

If that ball gets by him, the game is tied, and there's a runner on second, possibly third.

 
At 9:55 AM, Blogger Yuda said...

Like I said over at my place, I tried twice to get down to see you, but the first time you weren't there yet and the second time the Ticket Nazis were out in force.

They were even being fascists about it in the $7 seats -- absolutely ridiculous, and they were clearly cutting down on _everybody's_ enjoyment of the game.

 
At 9:59 AM, Blogger DM said...

Batter gets debit for GIDP.
Carroll gets error, RV equal to the diff between the GIDP and a runner on second with a run in.
Johnson gets great play credit equal to Carroll's error debit.

 
At 10:25 AM, Blogger El Gran Color Naranja said...

Wait, are you scoring based on potential errors now? That doesn't seem right unless you are evaluating all defensive plays game in and game out with the same "what if" scrutiny.

 
At 10:31 AM, Blogger DM said...

El Gran,

I have been scoring this way all year. It's the only way you can score great defensive plays and reflect the value of plays like Johnson's last night. Subjective, I know, but I want to see how this system works in its fullest capacity. And I have watched every possible great play, usually through MLB's condensed game if I didn't see it live.

In a perfect world, I would have a crowd of scorers judge plays like that and take the majority opinion.

 
At 10:53 AM, Blogger Yuda said...

Of course, the "official" scorer is just a guy with an opinion, too.

 
At 4:06 PM, Blogger El Gran Color Naranja said...

Yes, well, hmmm.

Really, all the plays? You're a better man than I.

I don't mean to keep picking on the ERV. It's great and I realize it isn't meant to be perfect.

 
At 4:13 PM, Blogger DM said...

Please, pick away, it can only make it better.

In a perfect world, the crowd of scorers would allocate EVERY play among the pitchers and fielders (e.g. strikeouts, HRs and Walks go 100% to pitchers, Balls in Play are shared, maybe 90/10 pitcher/fielder on routine plays, other ratios for better fielding plays, something like that). Then you would have an accurate valuation for fielding.

 

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