It seems to me that Frank loves the sac bunt. Knowing that the ERV matrix demonstrates that the sac bunt is rarely the smart move, steam has been coming out of my ears when he orders one, especially when there are no outs and it's #2 in the lineup at the plate. But I said, let's look at facts, and see whether the sac bunts have really cost us this year. So I put together this chart from my spreadsheet from scoring the whole season:
First, a couple of explanatory notes. The chart (which does not include Sunday's game) only lists succesful sacrifices, not botched ones. Also, "Bases" shows the runners AFTER the bunt, but ERV shows the expected runs on average BEFORE the bunt. RV is the run value for the bunt. "Actual" are the actual runs scored by the Nats for the remainder of the inning.
The Totals row is the interesting one. ERV says we should have score 14.89 runs in the innings where we successfully bunted, and in those inning we actually scored 11 runs. So we've given up about 3-4 runs so far this year by bunting. This is close to what the RV scoring estimates, as the sum of all the RVs is -2.16 runs. Our bats generally have been below average this year, which explains some of the difference between the two. Note also that most of Frank's sac bunts have been the most costly (none on, runner on first), which squander -0.21 RV each time.
Note that actual is a bit inflated, since the last entry is Jamey Carroll's bunt Saturday night, which Zambrano misplayed and threw to third. In other words, we didn't have to trade the out for base then, so the 4 runs we scored would probably have been less if Zambrano had played it right. So the Actual is a bit inflated. Also, the botched bunts, which there have been a few, mean we've squandered some more runs than reflected here too.
In sum, I'm right to have steam coming out of my ears. Frank bunts too much, and he is giving away runs with them. It's not a lot right now, but it adds up, and could be up to 20 or more runs by the end of the year, which equates to about 2 wins. That's the real sacrifice.