Thursday, April 06, 2006

ERV Boxscore for April 5 at New York Mets

Chicks dig the long ball! What a terrific game. If that one doesn't give this group some spirit, I don't know what will. It's gonna be fun to watch Zimmerman all season.

ERV Win: Guillen (60%), Zimmerman (40%)
ERV Loss: Julio (70%), Wagner (30%)

Three Most Valuable Plays:

(1) Guillen's HR in the 10th (4.77)
(2) Dutch's HR in the 9th (4.01)
(3) LoDuca's FB in the 9th (-1.58)


At 10:32 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Great blog! One question about today's ERV box: Do you question at all whether the most valuable play in the game ought to be Zimmerman's dinger? After all, without it Guillen never sees the plate because the Mets take home the W. Or it simply unfair to consider the highest ERV to mean "most valuable play" because ERV doesn't actually measure value but instead measures value relative to an expected result?

At 11:24 AM, Blogger DM said...

Thanks, anonymous. Good question.

Win Value in ERV is based on how much the particular event improves the chances of winning for that team. While Zimmerman's home run tied the game, the Mets still had a chance to win in the bottom of the ninth. Guillen's dinger, though, by putting the Nats up 2, is slightly more valuable because it made it less likely the Mets could win, because they had to overcome 2 runs.

Note that they are very close in value, though. But Win Value gives a slight edge to actions to help win the game slightly higher than actions that only avoid losing. Zimmerman's avoided the loss, Guillen's actually won it.

At 12:33 PM, Blogger Chris Needham said...

You're going more subjective this year, right? That's why there's no fielding credit for Hernandez?

At 12:38 PM, Blogger dexys_midnight said...

We also always have to keep in mind that DM never makes any of the numbers up. They are all based on stats, in this case the difference between the chance of winning a game down 1 going into the top of the 9th and tied with none on and no outs in the 9th (Zimmerman) and the difference between tied in the top of the 10th with man on first, one out and up 2 in the top of the 10th with none on and 1 out (Guillen). And, in fact, when you look at it that way, even your gut tells you Guillen's raises the win probability more even if Zimmerman's HR is more dramatic.

The one thing that stats can't tell you of course is the emotional effect of a) tying a game in the 9th b) against Billy Wagner c) against a division rival, d) going for your first win of the season, etc. But that's why we watch the game as opposed to just look at the ERV and WV--those stats, however, give us a better understanding of the game, and I think therefore a better appreciation.

At 11:16 PM, Blogger DM said...

Chris, I think you mean objective. Yes, I'm not trying to call great plays, though if I were, his diving catch would have qualified.

At 11:24 PM, Blogger Chris Needham said...

Don't tell me what I meant, dammit! ;)

Subjective/Objective/ Subjunctive/Adjunct/Conjuctivitis

They're all the same to me.


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