ERV Boxscore for April 5 at New York Mets
Chicks dig the long ball! What a terrific game. If that one doesn't give this group some spirit, I don't know what will. It's gonna be fun to watch Zimmerman all season.
ERV Win: Guillen (60%), Zimmerman (40%)
ERV Loss: Julio (70%), Wagner (30%)
Three Most Valuable Plays:
(1) Guillen's HR in the 10th (4.77)
(2) Dutch's HR in the 9th (4.01)
(3) LoDuca's FB in the 9th (-1.58)
posted by DM @ 12:10 AM
5 comments
5 Comments:
Great blog! One question about today's ERV box: Do you question at all whether the most valuable play in the game ought to be Zimmerman's dinger? After all, without it Guillen never sees the plate because the Mets take home the W. Or it simply unfair to consider the highest ERV to mean "most valuable play" because ERV doesn't actually measure value but instead measures value relative to an expected result?
Thanks, anonymous. Good question.
Win Value in ERV is based on how much the particular event improves the chances of winning for that team. While Zimmerman's home run tied the game, the Mets still had a chance to win in the bottom of the ninth. Guillen's dinger, though, by putting the Nats up 2, is slightly more valuable because it made it less likely the Mets could win, because they had to overcome 2 runs.
Note that they are very close in value, though. But Win Value gives a slight edge to actions to help win the game slightly higher than actions that only avoid losing. Zimmerman's avoided the loss, Guillen's actually won it.
You're going more subjective this year, right? That's why there's no fielding credit for Hernandez?
Chris, I think you mean objective. Yes, I'm not trying to call great plays, though if I were, his diving catch would have qualified.
Don't tell me what I meant, dammit! ;)
Subjective/Objective/ Subjunctive/Adjunct/Conjuctivitis
They're all the same to me.
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