Sooth Saying, Part Deux
I think DM is crazy to think this team can win 74 games. Dexy's just told me that Frank Robinson should be manager of the year if this team wins 74 games. I think he would be manager of the century.
Let's begin with first principles. Pitching, to me, is the very first principle. And the Nationals' starting pitching is as horrible as I've ever seen in my 33 years. After a solid 1-2 combination of Patterson and Hernandez, the Nats have a bunch of guys who would be the fifth starters on a last place team. Since 5th starters on bad teams win about 33% of the time (based on my knowledge and experience), the Nats look to be about 32-64 in the 96 or so games that will be started by Armas, Ortiz, et al. If they win 55% of the time with Patterson and Livan, then they will go about 36-30, for a 68-94 season.
I think 68-94 is on the high side, and assumes that Patterson and Livan will be healthy enough to make 33 starts each. My guess is that this is a 65-97 team, last place in the NL East.
Bring on the new owners.