Monday, April 03, 2006

Sooth Saying, Part Deux

I think DM is crazy to think this team can win 74 games. Dexy's just told me that Frank Robinson should be manager of the year if this team wins 74 games. I think he would be manager of the century.

Let's begin with first principles. Pitching, to me, is the very first principle. And the Nationals' starting pitching is as horrible as I've ever seen in my 33 years. After a solid 1-2 combination of Patterson and Hernandez, the Nats have a bunch of guys who would be the fifth starters on a last place team. Since 5th starters on bad teams win about 33% of the time (based on my knowledge and experience), the Nats look to be about 32-64 in the 96 or so games that will be started by Armas, Ortiz, et al. If they win 55% of the time with Patterson and Livan, then they will go about 36-30, for a 68-94 season.

I think 68-94 is on the high side, and assumes that Patterson and Livan will be healthy enough to make 33 starts each. My guess is that this is a 65-97 team, last place in the NL East.

Bring on the new owners.


At 12:44 PM, Blogger dexys_midnight said...

I think you are a bit off on both sides with about the same results.

It is not the worst staff you have ever seen because there have been Opening Day starters on teams like the Devil Rays where we have been like "who is THAT guy?" and he is throwing opening day--in fact some recent DRays and Royals staffs, among other have been worse.

Where you are dead-on is how bad the 3-5 starters are, and I think 33% is a high number. Think about truly dreadful teams--they go 33% for the 1-5 starters. Now, the Nats offense is not THAT bad, but I would go with more like 33% for one of the 3-5 guys like Ortiz, 25% for the other 3-5 guys and 62% for Livan and Patterson, which works out pretty similarly: 16-48 in the bad starter games, 11-21 in the "good" 3-5 starter games, and 41-25 in the Livan-Patterson games. That totals out to about:
68-94, so same result, just different extremes.

I'd really love to see DM's result though.


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