Monday, April 03, 2006

ERV Boxscore for April 1 at New York Mets

Yes, ERV Boxscores are back! I've made two changes to how I score the games. First, I've decided to be as objective as possible this year -- no judgment of great plays in the field, and I'm following the official scorer this year. I'm hopeful that this will make it easier for me to sustain this throughout the year.

Second, I'm using a new scoring system for baserunning (and related fielding). Using data from Dan Agonistes and the Hardball Times, I've come up with rules for when the average runner advances or not. For example, where a runner is on first and the batter hits a single, the data show that runners advance to third less than 50% of the time. So, if the runner gets to third, he (not the batter) gets the credit for the difference between 1st & 2nd and 1st & 3rd, and the outfielder who fielded the ball gets the fielding debit for the advance. I have these rules for runner on first and batter doubles, runner on 2nd and batter singles, and for the sacrifice fly situations. I'll explain this in more detail in another post.

So you'll see more running and fielding values, especially among outfielders. I would have liked to include fielding credits on routine plays, but just haven't gotten the time to implement that. I might be able to do that later in the season.

Also, I will be using a more rigorous method to assign ERV Wins and Losses, and keep track of those throughout the year. In some cases a win or loss may be assigned to the team if no one really qualifies. I'll explain that in a separate post, too.

ERV Win: Cliff Floyd (40%), Tom Glavine (40%) Paul LoDuca (20%)
ERV Loss: Livan Hernandez (40%), Brian Schneider (40%), Alfonso Soriano (20%)

Three Most Valuable Plays:
(1) Soriano getting thrown at home (-2.67 WV)
(2) Zimmerman double in the 8th (2.28 WV)
(3) Guillen Double in the 5th (1.78 WV)

3 Comments:

At 2:06 PM, Anonymous Will said...

Thanks for doing this again this year. Now I remember why I made this the only Nats related blog I read regularly, and it's not because of your constant pessimism.

By the way, the date is wrong.

 
At 9:09 PM, Blogger dexys_midnight said...

Will, I take a lot of blame for the pessimism. Frankly, I tend to write more when I am frustrated. But unfortunately, the Nats offseason and the whole Bowden/no owner/etc. give me a lot to write about in that vein. I promise that if the Nats give me good things to write about this year, I will do my best to emphasize them.

DM, a couple of quick questions. Did Livan get the full negative ERV for the botched run-down? I felt like that was my initial reaction, but on further review feel like Nick was just as much at fault for his poorly judged first throw. Also, on Soriano's out at home a) I thought Reyes or whoever threw from the cut-off deserved something for a perfect throw and b) it is a shame that Soriano gets a running deficit given that he was stupidly told to go and if not for Clayton's total brain fart of not moving the bat (I'm not too happy with his reaction after the game about it either), would have probably been safe.

I second Will in appreciating your effort on the ERV boxscores.

 
At 7:32 PM, Blogger DM said...

Thanks to you both, and thanks to Will for spotting the date error.

Dexys, I'm following the official scorer, and not making any judgments this year about fielding plays like the rundown. Livan got the debit for his dropping the ball hit right back to him.

I gave Cliff Floyd all the credit because right now I can't split fielding credit among two or more. I'm working on that, and may be able to do it later.

 

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