Sunday, April 02, 2006


I suck at predictions. I'm really bad at trying to pick how teams are going to finish. I spend a lot of time following the Nats, and have barely any left to follow the other clubs, so I have no clue about them. So I'm outsourcing my predictions to TradeSports. Here's what they have to say about the percentage chance each team has to win the divisions, the league pennants and the World Series:

NL East
New York 46.0%
Atlanta 35.8%
Philadelphia 15.3%
Washington 3.0%
Florida 0.7%

My take: Meet the Mets, Greet the Mets, Sell the Mets! That'll be down to 25 by mid-June. I also think Florida will do better, so that's a cheap risk to take. For the Nats, see below.

NL Central
St. Louis 64%
Chicago 15.0%
Houston 10.4%
Milwaukee 8.0%
Pittsburgh 3.0%
Cincinnati 2.5%

My take: The guys buying the Cubs might as well stand on their roofs and throw money into the wind. Better yet, take it from them. Milwaukee is a darling pick, but I'd stay away, since the division race isn't a giant weiner run.

NL West
Los Angeles 36.5%
San Francisco 33.9%
San Diego 20.1%
Arizona 8.0%
Colorado 2.0%

My take: Sell the Giants. Bonds won't play much due to injury, but even then it won't matter. I think Arizona is a nice risk that you could probably cash in by the end of May, as is Colorado.

AL East
New York 65.9%
Boston 24.0%
Toronto 9.6%
Baltimore 1.4%
Tampa Bay 0.1%

My take: Sell the Yankees. The Bosox are about right. Toronto is probably cheap. The guy who bought the Rays at 0.1 probably hit the wrong button and thought he was getting Toronto.

AL Central
Chicago 54.0%
Cleveland 32.9%
Minnesota 15.0%
Detroit 6.5%
Kansas City 0.1%

My take: Chicago is a bit high, but I wouldn't sell them. Minnesota is the team to sell and then root against.

AL West
Oakland 50.0%
Los Angeles 38.0%
Texas 10.0%
Seattle 4.0%

My take: Seattle is a nice buy, based on what I heard from the Seattle radio guys over the weekend. They're not biased, are they?

NL Pennant
St. Louis 22.6%
New York 19.0%
Atlanta 10.0%
Chicago 8.0%

My take: Why the Cubs are even near the top is idiocy. Selling them is like a license to print money.

AL Pennant
New York 30.0%
Chicago 15.5%
Boston 14.5%
Oakland 11.3%

My take: Why Boston is even near the top is lunacy. Selling them is like a license to print licenses to print money.

World Series Champion
New York Yankees 19.4%
Chicago White Sox 12.5%
St. Louis Cardinals 10.4%
New York Mets 9.1%

My take: None of these team will win it all. I have no idea who will.

As for our homeown nine, we will finish 74-88. I believe we were lucky last year to finish 81-81. Our lineup and bench are slightly better than last year, but our starters and bullpen are worse, and I think the bullpen will be much worse. And Frank and Eddy are still around to make dumb moves that ensure we won't get any cheap wins.


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