ERV Boxscore vs. WPA Scoring
If you haven't seen it already, Studes over at Hardball Times did a review of Saturday night's Nats-Mariners tilt at RFK using the "Win Probability Added" method of scoring. Studes' work provides a nice comparison to DM's own ERV scoring of the same game.
For the most part, a non-statistical observer, and ERV fan, and a WPA scorer would see this game the same. Everyone and their brother knows that Guillen's single to score the go-ahead run in the 7th was the biggest play of the game. In a 2-1 game, it's easy to see.
There are subtle difference, however, and it's worth comparing the two. Byrd was a net negative under DM's scoring, while he came out as the fourth most valuable player in Studes' system. Ryan Church was a hugely valuable player according to DM's ERV/WV system, while he was only about as valuable as Byrd in Studes' scoring. Fascinating that similar approaches could yield different results.
The problem is, neither approach can tell you whether there was enough Dippin' Dots on hand Saturday night. I mean, the net value of the Ice Cream of the Future on a muggy DC evening was HUGE.