Tuesday, May 17, 2005

ERV Boxscore for May 17, vs. Milwaukee

Not pretty. Ohka the only positive on the evening. Note that this box score is a good lesson in Win Value, as most of the Nats WVs (including Ohka's) are near zero, because the game was not close -- the 2 runs scored in the ninth are worth only 0.02 WV, or 2 percent of the average "go-ahead" run.

ERV Win: Obermueller & Lee
ERV Loss: Vargas

ERV Boxscore for May 17, vs. Milwaukee


At 11:00 PM, Blogger tmk67 said...

I was waiting for a classic "blow-out" to see how the new way of calculating WVs turned out. I guess there is such a thing as a "team loss" and a "team win".

I'm a little surprised to see Obermueller's number to be that "low", given two hits and no walks through eight innings. I assume this is because the game wasn't close, so his stellar performance was not as "important" to the team (e.g., Wes should have picked today to give up 4 runs through 8 innings!).

Question -- does the final victory margin impact the WV of Vargas's effort? In other words, would Vargas's WV deteriorate further if the Nats had scored four in the ninth inning, bringing the final margin to four runs?

At 11:03 PM, Blogger Chris Needham said...

It's strange that I was thinking in terms of WV when NJ hit the homer in the 9th!

Is win value based on final score? Or is it situational dependent?

That is, if NJ had hit his homer in the first, when it would've tied the game, would it affect his overall WV?

It's probably a basic question, but I'm tired and especially slow today!

Keep up the great work!

At 11:11 PM, Blogger DM said...

I think these are essentially the same question. I am hoping tonight to finally post on how Win Value works, but here's a quick answer to your questions.

WV is calculated at the time of the event, and does not change with post-facto events. If it is 6-0 in the third, like this game, the fact that the game might end up 6-6 in the 7th doesn't change the WV for those events back in the third. So K, Vargas's WV is the same regardless of what happens after he leaves, and yes, Chris, NJ would have a higher WV if he hit is HR in the first rather than the ninth.

And, yes, Obermueller picked the wrong game for WV-purposes. WV reflects performance when the game is close, when the "win" or "loss" is at stake.

At 11:33 PM, Blogger tmk67 said...

Thanks for the explanation, DM. I really think this system you have devised is quite innovative and important. Hopefully our questions help you crystalize your thinking on it!

At 8:35 AM, Blogger Basil said...

WV is calculated at the time of the event, and does not change with post-facto events.

Good. And thanks for the explanation in the next post!


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