Wednesday, May 25, 2005

I'll Comment On Guzman

DM was very kind in not commenting on Cristian Guzman's ERV chart, because it is beyond awful. That giant sucking sound Ross Perot was talking about? It turns out that it was Cristian Guzman's bat.

Let's put it in terms everyone can understand. According to DM's calculations, Guzman has cost the Nationals 22 runs on offense. In other words, if the Nats simply had an average hitter - not a good hitter, just an average one - in Guzman's spot, they would have scored 22 more run. Thus far this season, they've scored 187 (and allowed 195). Under the Pythagorean method (using 1.83 as your exponent, for you stat geeks), they should be 22-24, rather than 24-22. Now add 22 runs in, giving them 209 runs scored, and they should be 24-22. Thus, assuming that they would still be 2 games better than their Pythagorean record, Guzman has cost the team two games this year, and they would be 26-20 (and 2 games out of first, rather than 4 games) had he put up an average performance.

Two games doesn't sound like much, does it? Two games through 46 on the season is monumental. Catastrophic. Horrific. Over a 162 game season, that's 7 games in the standings. Seven games is the difference between a 91-71 playoff team and a 84-78 also ran.

Three and a three-quarters years left on the contract, Nats fans. Three and three quarters years and $15 million dollars. We need the 2001 Cristian Guzman, and we need him fast.

Game Notes.

The opposition got to Livan early again, didn't they? Afterwards, another shutdown performance by Livan, including shrugging off some jams in the middle of the game. It's hard not be impressed by Livan after watching him day in and day out - he's a competitor. Because I'm a White Sox fan, I get to see his brother El Duque in action (although he's on the DL right now) and they are the same way. Whatever Momma and Poppa Hernandez did with their boys, they did right.

Jamey Carroll looks like a ball player, doesn't he? I'd want him on any team I was on.

Nick Johnson is becoming the Nick Johnson everyone expected him to be. At 26, he's coming into his prime. We should expect 3 great seasons from Nick, as long as he can stay healthy. My fingers are crossed - he's made it 46 games so far.

Brian Schneider is the player who has grown on me the most. He's a great defensive catcher and despite the .238/.299/.377 line, seems to contribute offensively. It would be great if he could put up the .275/.339/.459 line he had in 2002, but I'd take last year's .257/.325/.399 line with his defense.


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