Tuesday, May 24, 2005

Guzman and the History Books

El Gran asked a research question, and we shall answer. Thanks to Aaron Haspel's searchable database , we can come up with the list of players who have at least 400 AB in any season and AVG/OBP/SLG all equal to or lower Guzman's current levels (193/233/247):

[insert crickets.wav here]

That's right, if he does not improve, nobody in history has been that bad as a regular.

Here are the modern (post-1920) "records" he is shooting for, for guys with at least 400 AB:

AVG -- Rob Deer, 1991 DET, .179
OBP -- Rob Picciolo, 1977 OAK, .219
SLG -- Ivan DeJesus, 1981 CHC, .233


At 5:06 PM, Blogger El Gran Color Naranja said...

And don't forget these 1977 and 1981 are times of far worse offensive production.

Since Cristian has 150+ PA, I looked at the lowest OPS for the past 5 years of any player with at least 150 at bats

2004: Doug Glanville .510
2003: Willie Harris .499
2002: Jorge Fabergas .480
2001: Donnie Sadler .454
Brandon Inge .453
2000: Rey Ordonez .504

I'm a little surprised Cristian's .479 isn't the worst.
I tried to find the reasons Inge and Sadler played even that much. Near as I can figure Inge was an ok AAA hitter, there was no reason to believe he'd bomb so badly. Donnie Sadler was one of those "can play anywhere" guys that bad managers love.

Cristian clearly can be the worst everyday player of the past 5 years, if he keeps this up. Even using 300 ABs, he'd have to raise his OPS by about 70 points to hit the next regular.

At 5:31 PM, Blogger dexys_midnight said...

Based on OPS, I will give Cristian slightly more credit than DM did.
Cristian's .479 OPS is slightly above some other players in the last 97 years (post 1908), but not many. The few below him:

Hal Lanier, 1968 (the death of offense, league avg OPS = .665): .225 OBP and .239 SLG for a .464 OPS in 498 PAs.

Bob Lillis, 1963 (league avg OPS = .678): .230 OBP and .237 SLG for a .467 OPS in 484 PAs.

Jim Levey, 1933 (league avg OPS = .775): .237 OBP and .240 SLG for a .477 OPS in 555 PAs. He was 26 at the time and Levey never played another game after this season.

And as they say, that's it. That's the list. Almost 100 years and 3 guys with a lower OPS, and for the record, 2004's league avg OPS was .788.

p.s. In one of the Strangest things I have ever seen, the top two guys on this list both went on to manage the Houston Astros IN SUCCESSION (Lillis 1982-85, Lanier 86-88).

At 2:13 AM, Blogger El Gran Color Naranja said...

Stop the presses! He's just passed Jim "I got an MVP vote in 1932" Levey!

Off the top of my head I figure he's got to go 0-18 to pass Hal Lanier.

Did you see his splits? From the left side he's .088 .148 OBP /.158 SLG. He's a couple of at bats from dropping below .300 for his OPS from this side. That's insane.


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