A Long Season?
They recently posted the contracts for over/under wins for all the teams . Essentially the price reflects the percentage chance that the team will go over the win amount.
Right now the Nats over 76.5 wins is trading for around 40, which means the crowds are laughing at those who think we'll win 81 games this year.
Of course, the crowds also said Brokeback Mountain was an 85 percent chance to win the Best Picture Oscar.
UPDATE (3/10): As of Friday morning, the Nats have the lowest share price (39.0) of any team. Who is the crowd bullish on? Perennial losers DET, COL, MIL and PIT.
posted by DM @ 11:29 PM
2 comments
2 Comments:
What was the going rate for 81 wins this time last year, I wonder?
I think the contract last year for that 67.5 was around 50, so most viewed it as right on, and were wrong. The better indicator is the overall wins contracts (which haven't been announced yet), where the price equals the predicted wins. Those started at 69, but only went up to 81, even during our peak in early July.
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