Sunday, March 05, 2006

A Long Season?

They recently posted the contracts for over/under wins for all the teams . Essentially the price reflects the percentage chance that the team will go over the win amount.

Right now the Nats over 76.5 wins is trading for around 40, which means the crowds are laughing at those who think we'll win 81 games this year.

Of course, the crowds also said Brokeback Mountain was an 85 percent chance to win the Best Picture Oscar.

UPDATE (3/10): As of Friday morning, the Nats have the lowest share price (39.0) of any team. Who is the crowd bullish on? Perennial losers DET, COL, MIL and PIT.

3 Comments:

At 7:40 PM, Blogger Nate said...

What was the going rate for 81 wins this time last year, I wonder?

 
At 10:21 AM, Blogger dexys_midnight said...

The over/under for Nats wins last year was 67.5--I bet the over and won. This year, if I had to bet, I would say under, although I hate the idea of betting against my team, so I'm guessing I won't.

And DM, I wish I knew that 85 figure on Brokeback. While I thought Brokeback was a slightly better movie than Crash, all the buzz I was hearing the week before the Oscars was that Crash would pull the upset.

 
At 11:02 AM, Blogger DM said...

I think the contract last year for that 67.5 was around 50, so most viewed it as right on, and were wrong. The better indicator is the overall wins contracts (which haven't been announced yet), where the price equals the predicted wins. Those started at 69, but only went up to 81, even during our peak in early July.

 

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