More Fun with Bill James

The Handbook also includes player projections for 2006. How good are these projections? Here's Bill James: "We would tell you how we did last year, except that frankly we have no idea. ... We're not claiming to be able to foresee the future. Next year some guys who are 34 years old will drive their batting averages off a cliff, and others will carry on as if they were 24. We have no way of knowing which is which." Note that the projections purport to take account of park effects.

Nevertheless, here are the projections for the Nats likely starters and others (such as potential free agent signings), including the projection of likelihood of injury:

Pos..Name...........Avg/HR/RBI...OBP/SLG/OPS...Inj
1B...N._Johnson.....276/14/66....397/424/821...med
2B...J._Vidro.......295/11/55....365/427/792...high
SS...C._Guzman......255/4/34.....296/340/636...med
3B...R._Zimmerman...315/16/68....352/490/842...low
OF...J._Guillen.....281/20/79....335/439/774...high
OF...B._Wilkerson...256/16/59....371/409/781...med
OF...P._Wilson......275/26/95....342/491/833...high
C....B._Schneider...257/10/49....324/385/709...med

OF...R._Church......265/9/42.....323/398/722...med

OF...J._Pierre......302/2/44.....355/371/726...low
OF...J._Encarnacion.265/16/69....323/430/752...low

They also project for pitchers, but "make no claims whatsoever for accuracy" and Bill James is not involved in these projections "because he doesn't believe it can be done." But anyway, here are projections for relevant Nats starters and names being mentioned in free agency:

Name..........W/L....ERA...IP...H/9..HR/9.BB/9.K/9..Inj
L..Hernandez..12-15..4.12..245..9.3..1.0..3.1..6.0..med
J..Patterson..12-13..3.92..220..8.6..1.0..3.4..7.7..med
E..Loaiza.....11-15..4.26..236..9.8..1.0..2.5..6.4..high
T..Armas......6-8....4.37..120..8.3..1.2..4.5..6.6..high
B..Lawrence...9-11...4.08..181..9.5..0.9..2.5..5.4..med

J..Johnson....11-14..4.67..219..9.9..1.1..3.1..5.3..high
K..Milwood....14-9...3.60..210..8.6..0.9..2.7..7.2..high
M..Morris.....13-9...3.82..201..8.7..1.0..2.3..6.3..high
P..Byrd.......11-11..3.98..201..9.4..1.3..1.9..5.0..high
K..Rogers.....10-11..4.44..191..10.0.0.9..2.8..4.9..med