Sunday, June 26, 2005

A peek into the laboratory ...

Here are some things the Nats Blog Research & Development team are working on. First, we're close to releasing ERV charts for pitchers, now that we have a fair amount of games for them. Here's a look at Esteban Loaiza's:

Compare to Chad Cordero's:

The one thing to notice about Cordero's: he has earned positive RV/WV in EVERY game in which he has appeared this year, except for one. Even in his blown save, he went on to pitch another inning or two to make up for it a bit. And we all know about his close calls. Truly remarkable.

Finally, here's a chart showing the Nats cumulative Win Value for last night's game. Essentially the higher the line goes above 0.00, the better chance the Nats have at winning the game (and vice versa for below the line). This chart shows how comfortable the win was last night.


At 7:00 PM, Blogger Basil said...

Cordero's rather extraordinary ability to shut down the opposition aside, is there any bias inherent in the system that would favor a reliever---or, perhaps more likely, discriminate against starters? (I guess something that punishes starters for their "mood swings"---good starts vs. inevitable bad starts.)

I'm sort of asking this question in ignorance, but I've always been fascinated with whether systems evaluate relievers correctly.

At 3:00 AM, Blogger DM said...

Good question.

Relievers like Cordero come in to the game in "high-leverage" situations, where they can earn (and lose) lots of Win Value. Starters, on the other hand, may or may not find themselves in high leverage situations, and start the game in relatively low WV situations.

With the Nats, especially, relievers have been getting lots of high-stakes WV opportunities, given the closeness of games late and our comebacks. If a team had dominant starters and offense that put most games in a solid position by the 7th inning or so, you would not see as high WV from its relievers.

Again, Cordero is a day-trader. He will either make a lot of money (i.e. Win Value) or lose a lot of money. Starters are more conservative investors, and must take more time to earn WV. Of course, if starters pitch more complete games, they would find themselves in more high-leverage situations.


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