Nats' PECOTA

Others, including Nationals Pastime, have already written at length about Baseball Prospectus's PECOTA projections for each of our beloved Nats. Without going over the ground that has been covered by others, I thought I'd touch on a couple of interesting projections. [For background on the PECOTA projections, click here]

• Highest OBP - Nick Johnson (.381)
• Highest AVG - Jose Vidro (.284)
• Highest SLG - J.J. Davis (.492)
• Most HR - Jose Guillen (23)
• Highest VORP - Jose Vidro (30.0)
• Lowest ERA (Starters) - Tomo Okha (3.96)
• Lowest ERA (Relievers) - Luis Ayala (3.47)
• Most Strikeouts - Livan Hernandez (151)
• Highest VORP - Livan Hernandez (30.7)

J.J. Davis, by the way, is a journeyman who played for the Pirates last year and was acquired by the Nationals....um...somehow. Anyhoo, PECOTA says that J.J. Davis will be the Nationals' feel-good player of the summer, producing 9 home runs in 172 at bats. It's a little sad that he leads the team in slugging percentage, don't you? Among regulars, Jose Guillen takes the cake with a .489 mark.

Terrmel Sledge looks to continue to improve under PECOTA - putting up a .271/.349/.448 line in 382 at bats. If you projected him over 550 at bats, he would hit about 20 home runs and 30 doubles.

How do the Nats' offseason pickups fare? You didn't ask that, did you? Because you don't want to know. Guess who is who.

Pickup A: .245 AVG, .297 OBP, .411 SLG

Pickup B: .263 AVG, .301 OBP, .367 SLG

Does it really matter who is who with lines like that? But, if it makes you feel better, Orlando Cabrera projects to .268/.318/.396 for Anaheim. And he cost the Angels $8 million per year.

The good news is that the pitching looks effective. Livan Hernandez projects to 200 innings and a sub-4 ERA. Okha and Patterson better the league average in ERA. Jon Rauch puts up a 4.46 ERA. Gary Majewski, heretofore batting practice, puts up a nice 3.88 ERA and 41 strikeouts in 51 relief innings. The bad news is that Tony Armas, Jr. is projected not to recover well from his injuries and put up a 4.89 ERA.

Projections are always interesting. But they do play the games for real. And the bottom line to the 2005 Nationals - something that will be remembered long after Brad Wilkerson's on-base percentage is calculated - is that games will be played in DC again.