Sunday, October 23, 2005

ERV Boxscore for World Series Game 2: Houston at Chicago

What a game! The ERV Boxscore is a mess. For example, I debited Scott Podsednik for his terrible throw home in the 9th, so he lost 2.95 WV. Of course, his game winner earned him back 5.04, and he ends up with 0.26 WV, and the reason he didn't get a share of the ERV win.

There were so many imporant plays, I'm listing the top 6 rather than 3. I feel bad for Andy Pettitte and Lance Berkman, who for two games in the past week have played excellent baseball and put the Astros in a position to win, only to see it blown by the bullpen.

Although Houston has Oswalt going Tuesday, and should win that game, it is an uphill battle for them now. The White Sox seem like a team of destiny, having benefitted from another missed call by the home plate ump, and a game-winning homer by a guy who was neck and neck with Jamey Carroll for dingers in the regular season. They are a tough, resilient team, and betting against them now seem foolish. But that's why they go back to the NL park on Tuesday, where the Astros made a very good Cardinals team finally make too many mistakes. They'd better do the same to the Sox.

ERV Win: Konerko and Crede
ERV Loss: Qualls and Lidge

6 Most Valuable Plays:
(1) Konerko's grand slam in the 7th (6.35)
(2) Podsednik's homer in the 9th (5.04)
(3) Burke's slide to tie the game in the 9th (2.95)
(4) Berkman's 2-Run double in the 5th (2.26)
(5) Crede's single in the 2nd (1.29)
(6) Vizcaino's single in the 9th (1.08)


At 10:22 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

There seems to be something inherently wrong with the RV system if Crede's RBI single in the 2nd is more "valuable" than Vizciano's 2-out, 2-RBI single in the 9th. Maybe the component needs to weight runs that are more meaningful to the win itself.

I don't know if you can jump from ERV to RV just like that. I submit that Crede's single should have a higher ERV than Vizcaino's as more runners were left in scoring position, but hindsight shows us that, in fact, Vizciano's single was singluarly more valuable (RV) since it, in itself, produced 2 runs.

Case 1: Let's say two teams are battling in a 0-0 game until the 9th, when suddenly the visiting team takes the lead, with a 2-run sibgle. The team continues to pile on 8 more runs in the frame on singles and extra base hits. In the bottom half, the home team gets a grand slam, and the final score is 10-4. Now, according to the RV system, that grand slam would be the most valuable play even though the game was well out of reach. Is this a correct analysis?

At 10:39 AM, Blogger dexys_midnight said...

A couple of points in response. For one thing, and this is a nitpick, because I think you knew to which ones you were referring, but there is ERV and WV, it sounds like you are talking about WV which is Win Value.
ERV--expected run value, and WV--win value, are simply based on thousands and thousands of scenarios over the years, which shows that for example, on average for the hundred thousand or so times teams had a runner on first and no one out, they scored an average of .96 runs (I actually forget the exact #, that may be just off), and that when a home team is down by 1 with one out in the bottom of the 6th and no one on, it has an x percentage chance of winning, etc, etc.
It's not particularly surprising that an act that takes a home team from down 1 to up 1 even in the second is valuable. And as you can see, the other items DM lists are easily identifiable as very valuable. The issue you have seems to boil down to Vizcaino's single not having quite a high enough WV (although still fairly high). My guess, and DM can answer this, is that because Burke's run was attributable not to Vizcaino's hit, but to Podsednik's throw and Burke's slide, he got credit for a single that made it (instead of man on 1st two outs and game tied) men on 1st and 3rd with two outs and down by 1--in such a scenario, you can see how it is likely that the Astros would still lose and Vizcaino's hit would be valuable but not super valuable.
Remember, the whole ERV system is a zero sum game. You can't give all the credit to Vizcaino and Burke and Podsednik or you would kill the zero-sum nature. I hope that helps.

At 12:05 PM, Blogger DM said...

Dexys' basically got it right. I gave Vizcaino credit for driving in 1 run, not 2, giving credit to the second run for Burke and his slide. If you think Vizcaino deserves credit for both runs, then his play is simply worth the sum of 1.08 plus 2.95, or 4.03. The "play" as a whole is worth 4.03, I just broke it up into its parts to give more accurate credit.

As to your second analysis, the grand slam would be worth nearly 0 WV. This is explained in the sidebar links on Win Value.


Post a Comment

<< Home