Thursday, September 22, 2005

Preliminary Awards: NL Cy

As with the AL MVP, here are my 1-5 votes for NL Cy Young (and apologies to Chad Cordero, but there are too many good starters):

1. Chris Carpenter. Despite two bad recent starts, I still need to go with Carpenter. Clemens's ERA is no longer diety-like enough to overcome Carpenter's total resume package: 21-4, 2.42 ERA (2nd), 1.00 WHIP (3rd), 203 Ks (3rd), 7 CGs (tied for 1st), 230 IPs (2nd). For every category that someone beats Carpenter in, Chris just beats him more in the others.

2. Dontrelle Wills. This is so close between my #2 and #3 that it will definitely be affected by the final couple of starts (in fact, Willis may get 4 starts according to McKeon). The question is: can I still call myself a stathead if I allow a 9-1 better record than Clemens to edge the .59 ERA edge and .10 WHIP edge? I don't know, but I feel like at this second, D-Train deserves my #2 vote. By the way, not that you should throw away ANY games when making this decision, but here are Dontelle's full stats: 21-9, 2.48 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 7 CG, 217 IP, 148 Ks. And here are those first three stats without those three straight awful starts in mid-July: 21-6, 1.64 ERA, 1.02 WHIP. Not sure there are many pitchers that have had seasons that dominant with three games in a row in the middle that awful.

3. Clemens. I feel bad punishing Clemens for his couple of bad September starts when mentioning how good Willis would be without those three July starts. But despite the overrating most people have of the W-L record, let's face it--if you are going to be 12-8, you are just going to have to be that much more dominant than everyone else. The 1.89 ERA (1st), 1.00 WHIP (2nd--essentially tied with Carpenter), and 180 Ks (9th) aren't going to do it even with the .197 BAA. Like I said above, Clemens could easily jump Willis in the final week and a half; it is that close to me.

4. Pettitte and 5. Pedro. These two just seem to be the obvious choices to me. Pettitte's combination of a 2.45 ERA (3rd) and better WHIP could have him also jumping Willis by season's end. Pedro once again has the absolutely sparkling WHIP (0.93, destroying the rest of the league) and K total (207--2nd).

4 Comments:

At 3:49 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Solid post. But where's some commentary on the Ryan Church "scandle"? At worst I would have expected the Blog to bust out some funny signs folks can bring to upcoming games -- to borrow a friend's example, how about "Hank Greenberg- .313, 331 HR
Ryan Church- .261, 8 HR"

 
At 4:31 PM, Blogger dexys_midnight said...

I prefer to remain apolitical on that, however...if you beg....

Perhaps a sign at today's game saying:
"Church doesn't like Bonds because he heard he was on the Jewce"?

or

"Will convert for wins."

 
At 8:51 PM, Blogger Mean Dean said...

I am as undecided between #1 and 2 as you are between #s 2 and 3. I don't care about W-L, but I do care about innings. Carpenter has 26 more than Rocket, and if I add 26 replacement-level innings (which I decree for absolutely no good reason is a 5.50 ERA) to Rocket, I get a 2.31 ERA to Carpenter's 2.43. Carpenter has more quality starts, 27 to 25. Carpenter's average game score is very slightly higher, 63.9 to 63.5. Carpenter's DIPS ERA is 3.00 to Clemens' 3.03. Clemens has 4 4 more Win Shares, but that seems to be almost entirely due to their hitting, which I find ridiculous. (But if you're curious, Carpenter is a 041/041/101 hitter, Clemens is 214/250/290.) I would think subjectively that the Cards are better defensively than the Astros, but their Defensive Efficiency Rating is identical. I think I'd go with Clemens with a gun to my head, but it's ridiculously close and the last couple games will have to decide it. Then I've got Willis, and if I'm not mistaken, you only vote for three for Cy :)

 
At 12:51 AM, Anonymous Will said...

Clemens played in Minute Maid. Doesn't that make your decision easier?

 

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