Thursday, July 07, 2005

After the break

Last night's loss was disheartening to say the least because it seemed like we could really continue the roll into the all-star break. Hopefully we can gather some momentum and keep the division leads we have over the next 5 days.

Looking over DM's win value totals for the half-way break, I wondered how our lineup would change as we a) got our players back healthy and b) if we actually did a deal or kept Carroll at short or moved Spivey there.

I tried to break down DM's WV totals into a per game basis. Now, I think this is fine for the regulars, but it probably slightly hurts guys like Ryan Church and Marlon Byrd who have pinch hit a few times (and helps Carlos Baerga in that his negative numbers aren't as bad for the same reason).
Recent lineups before the Guzman injury had us with things like:
Wilkerson 0.13 WV per game
Carroll (0.29) WV per game (who has had his WV slightly hurt by so many bunts).
Guillen 0.25 WV per game
Cordero (0.40) WV per game or Baerga (0.07) WV per game
Castilla (0.22) WV per game
Cepicky too small a sample, but let's be VERY generous and say he is at zero.
Schneider 0.27 WV per game or Bennett (0.13) WV per game
Guzman (0.73!) WV per game (don't get me started)
for a total of negative 0.99 WV per game with Schneider in and negative 1.39 WV with Bennett.
This tells me for sure that except in rare cases, Schneider should be in every day, and it looks like Frank is moving that way.

However, let's bring back a couple of injured players and keep Guzman as far away from the playing field as possible. Then you have:
Wilkerson 0.13 WV per game
Vidro 0.02 WV per game (and I think and hope potential for much more now)
Johnson 0.57 WV per game
Guillen 0.25 WV per game
Church 0.25 WV per game
Schneider 0.27 WV per game (and yes, I know Frank will never bat him above Castilla)
Castilla (0.22) WV per game
Spivey 0.19 WV per game or more realistically Carroll (0.29) WV per game
That gives you a total of 1.46! WV per game with Spivey and still 0.98 WV with Carroll. That is a team with a legitimate offense even before you make a move. Combine that with a solid pitching staff and there is hope that we can hold off the likes of the Braves and Marlins. Now, if we dealt for a real shortstop (yeah, pipe dream) or a solid #2 starter to move everyone else down and Armas out (I know, you've heard that before from me), we have the makings of a real playoff team.

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