Saturday, May 28, 2005

More fun Cristian Guzman stats!!

Cristian is on pace for approximately 550 at bats this year (and about 580 plate appearances). He has 6 (count em) 6 RBIs, putting his season pace at exactly 20 RBI.

There have been two players in MLB history that had over 550 at bats and 20 or fewer RBI (although Luis Castillo has that crazy season where he batted .334 leadoff, a ridiculous hitting game streak and only had 17 RBIs--but he played in 136 games and didn't have 550+ at bats, although admittedly was close).
Those two players were Richie Ashburn (20) in 1959 and Morrie Rath (19) in 1912. Here's the kicker: Ashburn scored 86 runs in his season and Rath scored 104 times in his. Cristian? On pace for a whopping 34 runs scored.

Oh, and just so you know, the only guy in the last 40 years to play in 150+ games and score fewer than 34 runs? None. But at least Cristian can say that one guy tied him--In 1989, Juan Uribe played in 151 games and scored exactly 34 runs. However, since 1994, and the offensive explosion, the fewest number of runs scored for a player playing in 150+ games? 46: Mike Bordick, Jeff Conine and Rey Ordonez. Cristian at this pace would destroy that (in the bad way). Rey also has the fewest RBIs in a season for 150+ games at 30.

Going out now, but I'll add more as I think of fun things to search.


At 10:37 PM, Blogger Chris Needham said...

I've been noticing the RBI totals when I've done my Pace blurbs on my blog. They're absolutely brutal -- and definitely one of the cases where RBI CAN tell the story! :P

(And I think you mean Jose Uribe)

At 6:02 AM, Anonymous john said...

Ohh my, I do hate Guzzman, but I think it's unfair to hold RBIs against him or any other player. It's a dismal stat, and one of the more egregious examples of a stat that rewards and punishes a player for situations that he had nothing to do with.

If nothing else, to be meaningful as a criticism the stat should be adjusted as a % of potential RBI's that were achieved & missed, or at bare minimum have some compensation for where a batter is in the order.

At 10:48 AM, Blogger dexys_midnight said...

my mistake on Mr. Uribe and my apologies to his family.

John, I agree with you to a point. As you know, I simply list various Guzman stats as the season goes on, so it wasn't like I was using RBI as a proof of how bad he is--plenty of stats will tell us that. I just view this as another drop (spill, deluge) in the bucket of stats that show how bas he is.

And, the sad thing is, John, without looking, I believe that the LAST thing Cristian Guzman would want us to do is look at his percentage of RBIs over RBI chances--as I pointed out in a prior post, his stats, to the extent they can, actually DECLINE dramatically in RBI situations.

At 8:44 PM, Blogger dexys_midnight said...

So, here's another search I did. Given that Cristian is on pace (especially after today's 3 K game) to strike out over 100 times this season. I tried to find another player in MLB history who was as light on power and struck out as much.
My parameters were 150+ games played, fewer than 15 doubles (Guzman's pace is 10), fewer than 5 triples (Guzman: 3), fewer than 5 home runs (Guzman: 3) and more than 80 strikeouts (Guzman: 104).
The only player that fit that bill:
1998 Tom Goodwin who had 13 doubles, 3 triples, two homers and struck out 90 times in 154 games. Was his season close to as bad as Cristian's? Um, not quite. Mr. Goodwin also had a .380 on base percentage that year as opposed to Cristian Guzman's .226--and Goodwin scored over 100 runs.

At 12:30 AM, Blogger DM said...

Run Value and Win Value are essentially measures of a player's RBI opportunties and whether he capitalizes on them, and we all know Guzman's performance using that metric.

John, RBI is a dismal stat for doing some things, like predicting what a player will do in the future or comparing players from different teams. But it does have some value, and at the extremes like Guzman's it reinforces the conclusion that he has been of very little value to this team this year.

Also, we can't ignore the context of a player's performance completely. Sure, it may not be fair to him what kinds of situations he comes to bat in, but to me, that is the reality of baseball, and to win, you need guys who will perform in certain contexts especially.

It is also one of the neat things about baseball that separates it from other sports. You can't "feed the hot hand" like in basketball, or keep handing the ball off to your star running back. No matter how good Albert Pujols is, he can't come to bat much more than any of the other players. And if you don't succeed in the key moment, you have to think about (or get over it) for a few innings before you get to redeem yourself.

Reflecting this reality in stats is appropriate at times.


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