Tuesday, May 24, 2005

A Cristian Guzman Breakdown

I mean of his stats, not a panic attack by our fearless(?) shortstop.

I decided to take a look at his situational stats to see how he does under various conditions, and what I found was pretty significant both by what he does and by how often he finds himself in various situations.

We know the overall numbers. .193 BA, .233 OBP, .247 SLG, .479 OPS, 1 HR, 6 RBIs (6!), 9 runs scored, 8 BB, 27 K, 1 SB, 2 CS, and 4 errors to lead the team in at least one category.

But what is even scarier are two things that I see in looking at a breakdown of his situations.

1) He is, if you can believe it, even worse in the "clutch," or more to the point, in important situations or spots in the lineup.

For example:

When Cristian bats 2nd, in 39 plate appearances, he has a .103 OBP, and .158 SLG, with 1 run scored, and 2 RBIs (oh..and this is the spot in which he hit his only home run).

When he bats 7th, in 37 plate appearances, he has a .158 OBP and .088 SLG with 4 runs scored and 1 RBI.

However, in the 8th spot, in 71 plate appearances, he actually has a respectable .366 OBP and .403 SLG.

So the less important the spot, the better he does (I didn't list the small sample size 3 games he batted 9th against Toronto).

When Cristian bats with the bases empty and one out or two out--low pressure because he neither has to drive someone in, nor must he start the inning--he has a .250 OBP and .319 SLG (And yes those are good numbers for him).

When he bats with none on, none out, he has a .222 OBP and .294 SLG.

When he bats with men on, he has a .227 OBP and .174 SLG.

If any of those men on are in scoring position, it goes to a .200 OBP and .114 SLG

If there are runners in scoring position and 2 out (which he has seen 23 times), it goes to .217 OBP and .053 SLG (and the .217 OBP is a function of walks to get to the pitcher as his average in those situations is .053).

By way of contrast, Nick Johnson, who has an overall OBP of .420 with a .516 SLG, sees his numbers go up to .512 OBP and .556 SLG with men on, .596 OBP and .686 SLG with men in scoring position and .455 OBP and .529 SLG with men in scoring position, 2 outs. Nick also has a single and a walk in his two bases loaded opportunites of the season.

2) Cristian gets into bad counts far more often than good counts

He has swung and connected on the first pitch 27 times for a .259 OBP and .296 SLG.
That leaves 131 times that he has seen a second pitch.

Of those 131 times:

77 of the first pitches have been for strikes putting him in a 0-1 hole.

And after he goes 0-1, his OBP drops to .195 and SLG .211. He has only managed to turn one of those 77 plate appearances into a walk.

He has seen 30 counts that went to 0-2. He has seen 13 counts that were 2-0.

He has seen 37 counts that were 1-2. He has seen 16 counts that were 2-1.

He has seen only five 3-0 counts all season. In all five occurrences, he was walked on the next pitch (so one could easily argue that he wasn't even being pitched to in those circumstances).

He has swung away and connected in three 2-0 counts and one 3-1 count, the big "batter's counts." He did not get a hit any of those times.

By way of contrast, Nick Johnson has seen a second pitch 167 times. The count was 1-0 84 times and 0-1 83 times. After going 1-0, Nick's OBP is .541 and his SLG is .766. On the seven occasions he has decided to swing (and connected) on the 1-0 pitch, he has recorded one out, two singles, one double and three home runs.

Anyway, I leave these stats with minimal commentary since you can easily make your own conclusions.

[promoted from the comments is this exchange between el gran color naranja & dexy's - SNV]

El Gran Color Naranja said...

Here's something to study for someone who's interested.

1) Is Cristian the worst everyday player in the majors this year?
2) If he continued on his current pace, how does his season rank among all-time worst seasons?

My guesses are:

1) Yes
2) Pretty high

dexys_midnight said...

Well, I will give you the following on question 1:

Of the 178 everyday players in the major leagues, Cristian ranks 178 in OPS and his .479 is 53 points(!) behind the player who is 176. Aaron Boone, who is 177 is 11 points ahead of Guzman, and Jack Wilson, at 176, is 42 points above Boone.

Of those 178 players, he ranks 178th in pitches seen per plate appearance at 3.02. This is a quarter of a pitch less than the player ranked 176th (who is as close to the player ranked 152 as he is to Cristian).

Although there are only 178 everyday players, Cristian ranks tied for 283 in extra base hits.

In runs created per 27 outs, Cristian's 1.23 ranks 177 (Aaron Boone at 1.19 is 178th). Jack Wilson at 176 creates 1.94 runs per 27, 60% higher than Cristian.

So, I would say the answer is yes, he is the worst everyday player in the majors this year, with Aaron Boone the only other player potentially even in the discussion.

3 Comments:

At 2:20 PM, Blogger El Gran Color Naranja said...

Here's something to study for someone who's interestd.
1) Is Cristian the worst everyday player in the majors this year?
2) If he continued on his current pace, how does his season rank among all-time worst seasons?

My guesses are
1) Yes
2) Pretty high

 
At 2:59 PM, Blogger dexys_midnight said...

Well, I will give you the following on question 1:

Of the 178 everyday players in the major leagues, Cristian ranks 178 in OPS and his .479 is 53 points(!) behind the player who is 176. Aaron Boone, who is 177 is 11 points ahead of Guzman, and Jack Wilson, at 176, is 42 points above Boone.

Of those 178 players, he ranks 178th in pitches seen per plate appearance at 3.02. This is a quarter of a pitch less than the player ranked 176th (who is as close to the player ranked 152 as he is to Cristian).

Although there are only 178 everyday players, Cristian ranks tied for 283 in extra base hits.

In runs created per 27 outs, Cristian's 1.23 ranks 177 (Aaron Boone at 1.19 is 178th). Jack Wilson at 176 creates 1.94 runs per 27, 60% higher than Cristian.

So, I would say the answer is yes, he is the worst everyday player in the majors this year, with Aaron Boone the only other player potentially even in the discussion.

 
At 3:03 PM, Blogger SuperNoVa said...

Dexy's, I'm promoting your comment to the text. Too good to leave in a comment.

 

Post a Comment

<< Home