Monday, December 20, 2004

Odds

Thought I might get people's persepectives on a straight number here: what do people think the odds are of this actually getting worked out and the Expos actually becoming the Washington Nationals (and yes, before they become any other team--i.e., becoming the Nationals in 20 more years doesn't count). I have become less and less pessimistic over the last 5 days. I think that this is the city of politics, Cropp is going to get every concession she can out of Williams and the others for herself, her supporters and whatever pet projects she wants to funnel money to, and the deal will be done. I say:

65% chance we get the team.

Others? Any response must have your percentage guess :-)

4 Comments:

At 2:50 PM, Blogger tmk67 said...

I just heard that the Williams-Cropp meeting today lasted all of 13 minutes. Holy Cow, you have three weeks to work something out, but you don't meet for 6 days...and then you spend barely enough time to discuss Bob Ryan's forecast?

Odds of April 14 game in DC: 10%
Odds of April 14 game in Norfolk: 80%
Odds of April 14 game in Portland: 5%
Odds of April 14 game in a different AAA stadium: 5%

My bet is on Norfolk because it lets the owners bargain with both Virginia and DC authorities for the next two years, minimizes schedule disrpution, and avoids any Angelos payoffs.

 
At 4:38 PM, Blogger DM said...

Although, TMK, I heard that the issue is back on the City Council agenda tomorrow, which can only be a good sign. Of course, Cropp can take it off anytime before then too.

I think I've become less pessimistic too over the past couple of days, but I'm not sure why.

45% chance that the Nats open the season in DC for good on April 14.

85% chance that baseball will let DC look for private financing beyond Dec. 31, so that this issue is not resolved one way or another anytime real soon.

 
At 4:55 PM, Blogger SuperNoVa said...

Chance that Expos move to DC on a permanent basis: 15%

Chance that Expos play 2005 season in DC pending relocation: 15%

Total chance of Baseball in DC in 2005=30%

 
At 8:26 PM, Blogger Chris Needham said...

Eh... I'm an optimist. I'd say that, while not a certainty, it's probable that they're here next year. 75%? Maybe higher?

 

Post a Comment

<< Home